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Well, I just ran 720,000 backtests over night. Need to go analyze the results. May be gone a while.

My first system lasted about 5 years and faded. The rest are going 5+ years now with no sign of slowing down. They back test well for 15+ years straight. Probably more, but I dont have enough data to go further back. I track its statistical behavior. win%, profit factor, draw downs...

More evidence you have no idea how to backtest properly. A good system will test against a very very large set of parameters. Only inexperienced backtesters develop systems that are perfectly curve fitted to a tiny set of parameters which will only work on historical data. A worthless...

How do you know you are even close to "the best trader". What if you met a backtester who blows away your returns year after year? There are lots of crappy backtesters out there, just like traders. Backtesting *IS* a trading skill.

Obivously you have failed at backtesting, others havent. I have several kick ass systems, that are 100% mechanical, based on nothing more than backtesting. Mediocre system?? How does a 64% win rate with a 2.3 profit factor sound? How does 50% return a year with 6% drawdown sound...

Anyone who pooh-poohs backtesting is ignorant of good mechanical systems development methodologies. If you know proper backtest methodology, you can absolutely backtest a system which WILL work in the future 99% guaranteed. Good edges dont suddenly disappear the VERY DAY you start trading...

Every now and then someone comes along who makes it painfully clear for all the experienced traders to see, he doesnt know a damn thing about backtesting :D

Greed is going to be burn these stubborn sellers who wont lower their prices. Its herd psychology at play. Imagine being in the position of buying a home in san diego recently, after everyone you have spoken to who has already bought and has "made so much money", and coming to the...

These 2 sentences do not gel. 85% of home buyers in socal are using ARM+interest only loans and are leveraged 10:1. Imagine couples with 50K jobs each buying 1 MILLION dollar homes on ARM+interest only loans, and you will understand what has happened here in the last few years. If rates...

I run full auto every day, so I can post and dont like to watch my systems too closely, or im tempted to mess with them. Im sporadic in my posting though. Ill be gone weeks at a time, then a burst of posts. ET is for when im bored, trading or not. I dont have to watch screens to trade...

Internet infrastructure is over in the short term due to massive over building in the 2000 bubble. But think about india, china, and the huge percentage of the world that is still not networked. This capacity will eventually get eaten up, and cisco is in good position to win. Cheaper...

Many people will try their entire lives in this game and still fail. Telling them to go home, for many, will save them from many years of hardship with no rewards for their efforts, and a shitty non-existent retirement. If your perfectly happy trying your entire life and failing, when you...

Good post. Most people completely underestimate what it takes. They try "real hard". At least what they think is trying real hard. In the mean time, theres a thousand guys putting in 10X the effort they are putting in. Then they sit there wondering why they cant make money...

Of course there are arbitrate opportunies left. Who do you think causes people to say "there are no arb opps left?" THE ARB GUYS!!! :) Most people simply arent willing to do what it takes to swipe the arb opportunity first from the arb guy who is currently nailing it. You want to...

The nail in the coffin of this thread, is the giant graphic that makes it impossible to read the thread :mad:

And you know this how???? You dont. You have no basis for such a statement. I monitor my systems closely every month, I can detect system fade over a long period of time. Once an edge is eaten up, I take the system off line. But for years, it made me lots of money. So in the end, I...

He has already basically admitted he has not done any real amount of backtesting. So I think its clear why he is not profitable. I have over 5 billion backtests in my first 3 years. He wont even answer the question to as how many he has completed.

100% false. Since my account goes up nicely every single year. I make more trading than my broker does from my commish. A lot more. Thats a fact.

When was the last time the government did any efficiently or well? You really think the government can do anything better than a private institution? Some people here have a lot more confidence in governments than I do. :p

Ill repeat, ***SOMEONE*** is making the futures markets "impossible and too efficient", and ***THAT*** someone is making money in the futures market ;-)