Search results

You have to look at the non-borrowed reserves. Positive for the first time since Jan 2008. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H3/hist/h3hist4.txt

Markets are not efficient but it takes a lot of work to earn that extra 1% return. Buffett long term returns …. Index + 10% per year Graham long term returns …. Index + 2% per year If it was easy to achieve 20% returns on capital over a 20 year period forbes 400 would be full of...

Luck or skill and hard work? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6F1ENJ23GR8

1985: “ I can guarantee we will not do as well as in the past, ” Buffett told shareholders at the annual meeting. 1992: Charlie Munger told Business Week: “ Size at a certain point gets to be an anchor, which drags you down. We always knew that it would. ” 1995: At...

34 years ago ....

What if 30 yr bond yields return to more "normal" levels? http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ETYX At 4.5% yield their bond will worth 80% of what they paid for. At 6% .... 60% of what they paid for. In a high inflation scenario case like the 1980's with yield's 9% and above their bonds...

I have to say that it takes a lot of faith to accept 3% return for 30 years with an unknown variable called “inflation”.

Index-Level Fundamentals as of September 30, 2008 S&P Japan 500 Div Yield 2.2164 P/Sales 0.5593 P/B 1.2599 P/CF 6.3676 ROE 9.5433 P/E: Last Reported Annual EPS 13.2017 P/E: 1-year Forward Projected...

70 http://stockmarkethop.com/script/060-anatomy-of-a-market-crash--tokyo-in-the-1990s.html

Answer by example Industrial bank of Japan at the bubble peak…. P/E ratio 100 So an “intelligent investor” was supposed to buy something and wait 100 years to take his money back? Logical assumptions how many years it will take for the index to recover …. An arbitrary number for...

No one is using short term vol to value 15 years derivatives. :-) if anyone is doing it even I am willing to sell some options. Anyway assuming that for accounting purposes the 15 year vol is calculated at 40% then the option is 200% up.

I can’t understand the fuss about what appears to be plain vanilla put contracts. Yes S&P for example is down from 1400 to 850, but for a 15 years put that mean a 100% up move in valuation. From Buffett’s point of view this is irrelevant because you are not able to find everyday someone...

If you have important data better let someone more experienced to try it, else you could do the following If it has a dvd-drive, boot from it (change bios settings so the dvd is the first device to boot from instead of the hard disk). Use your windows dvd and choose repair (be carefull not to...

Actually the math on received premium is consistent with plain vanilla atm puts with long term estimated volatilities around 20-22% for the underline. There is a spread of the expirations (not all puts expire simultaneously) which is a very smart thing to do from Buffett’s side. The recorded...

And what’s the probability S&P500 will be far below today’s value after 10 years in an inflationary environment? The risk he took is small. Even at the great depression Market Cap to GDP ratios was around 30%. So suppose the recession extent through 2019 (very unlikely) and we have zero...

A destruction of wealth (like in WWII) is never the cause of a bull market. Read chapters "The broken window" and "The Blessings of Destruction" from Henry Hazlitt's book to see why. http://jim.com/econ/chap02p1.html

His stock tanked then because market thought they are going to buy it cheaper later. Prices always are more volatile than fundamentals. GAAP made him have a winning year? Do you think it’s possible to make it from an initial 10 thousand dollar investment to 60 billion using GAAP to fool people...

First 9 months 2008 : +0.8% http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/3rdqtr08.pdf 1964 - 1981 : Dow from 880 to 880 (0% return) (is this a definition of a bear market?) Buffy + 2800% return between 1964 and 1981. Doing it since May 2006...

Squanderville and Thriftville scenario. Dow at 1000, the Chinese are using all their accumulated US Bonds to buy 100% of corporate America and own the US economy. It’s not going to happen. They will inflate the currency. Probably at most Dow at 6500.

Berkshires Hathaway returns are available on their site 1/1/2008 - 9/30/2008 : + 0.8% http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/3rdqtr08.pdf Previous Results ... 2001 : - 6.2 % 2002 : + 10% 2003 : + 21% 2004 : + 10.5% 2005 : +6.4% 2006 : +18.4% 2007 : +11%...