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    Simpson's paradox

    The way I would apply that to trading is simple: 1. do not compare directly (and decide which is better) trading results from different instruments, timeframes, methods etc. 2. from the above: focus on particular instrument, timeframe and optimize your method 3. any in general: there is no...
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    ES first 30 mins

    Anybody claiming they have grown up usually points to the opposite. You don't understand what I asked for. It wasn't your edge, trade ideas, signals etc. There are many ways you could have answered my concerns (i.e. with trading stats, you didn't have to give out anything meaningful, let alone...
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    Calculating the P&L for the 6A, 6C, 6J, 6E, etc.

    You might be coming fro forex markets. FYI some CME currency features contracts have ticks that would be equivalent of 0.5pip while others tick more like "full" pips. Make sure you don't confuse the two. For example: making 31pips in Eur/Usd would be equivalent to 62 ticks in 6E. However the...
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    ES first 30 mins

    Of course you don't need to prove anything. You can just post what you think, engage in meaningful discussions and ignore those that are negative. There is a difference between trolls showing up to contradict others with their negativity (which you can chose to ignore) and those that comment...
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    ES first 30 mins

    It was me that asked with a grain of salt if you've got top/bottom of each leg. I have no doubt you could have taken the trades you said. There is nothing extraordinary in catching 2 swings like you did with entries/exits 1pt from top/bottom of each swing, provided it happens once in a while...
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    ES first 30 mins

    How about you add something of value and comment on what has been posted by MT. Since you're also trend trader like him, how do you see his entries and exits given the example he provided? I was looking to short the top (though I was looking for one more push up to 39.50-40 and wouldn't mind...
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    ES first 30 mins

    for every long there is a reason to go short. I don't care what other's are doing (read: I'm not going to copy someone) but it is nice to compare thought process to see opposing views and determine if my psychological makeup makes me too much biased one way or another.. I asked for your thought...
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    ES first 30 mins

    The chart w/o commentary is worthless. What the chart shows to me is that you are one of those wizards that can catch swings from the top to the bottom ticks. Besides, if you're a "trend trader" then how would you justify entering short for that swing down after prior swing up. I could come up...
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    ES first 30 mins

    While it may be exceptional that you get in trouble, what kind of trouble would that be, considering you have 3pt stops? That statement doesn't make too much sense to me, unless you mean't that you don't have many (3pt) losers. Also, you claim to be daytrader and a trend trader. I don't see ES...
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    Joe Biden Asks The Eternal Question About Bill Ackman: “Who Is This A**hole?"

    No, it would be Biden that made too big of a deal of a fair comment. It only came out bad for those that don't know these facts. Of course I wasn't there so I don't know what the mood was, but given Biden's past, the comment was fair. I know Biden has a lifelong of public service, but if he...
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    ES first 30 mins

    Since I know how you trade (more or less) I think that waiting out makes sense in your case. One of the reasons I say that is because of your low R:R ratio (not in general, but to take the risk during that time). The other reason is that overnight indexes trade in correlation to other products...
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    Joe Biden Asks The Eternal Question About Bill Ackman: “Who Is This A**hole?"

    I agree with above but for different reasons. If you know what Joe Biden had to go through in his life, you would understand that Ackman's question was fair. By saying what he said, Ackman showed that he at least knew something about Biden's past. I wonder how many others know that Biden has...
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    Old angles gone

    good trade SunTrader. Seems to me that you entered short on a stop (not limit) once that 5min bearish bar broke the low of the first retracement to pivot after breaking through it. But if you base your trades on pivot points, then why going for a hard 3pt stop, instead of using pivot points...
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    YUKK!!! what a crappy day for ES

    That much I know... it was already midnight and I missed important clue, you were talking about "short term scalping" which I don't do (true scalping that is, for ticks). Is anybody even doing that profitably? I can imagine going for a point (minimum) and stay profitable and that's as far as my...
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    YUKK!!! what a crappy day for ES

    I don't know what are you talking about. I don't have the charts in front of me but we have already tested down on June 9th and rejected it, tested down again on the 12th and 15th and came back. From here it could go either way (especially opening at 32 handle) but I don't see seeking value down...
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    YUKK!!! what a crappy day for ES

    How can price open away from vvap? You mean from globex vvap or you wanted to say it "stays" away from vvap. I don't have advences/declines, tick, trin and stocks so I can't watch those BUT is the last Fri a very food example? I mean with some underlying stocks being part of different indexes...
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    YUKK!!! what a crappy day for ES

    Seems to me that slower grind with very little to no pullback usually goes much farther that faster move. As far as the order flow, I watch the DOM and but since ES is a derivative and it is the underlying that really trades, how reliable is that? I mean some are trading ES, some are trading...
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    YUKK!!! what a crappy day for ES

    Care to elaborate? I heard quite contrary, that indexes like ES are not to be trend traded intraday. As you said, if it's trending only 10% of the time then 90% of the time it is not. Besides, how do you now it is a trend day? You don't until the day ends. It may start like one... just like...
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    YUKK!!! what a crappy day for ES

    My brain is fried for today, plus it's midnight already here (Central European timezone) so I'd need to be spoon fed where are you going with that thought process. Thanks
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    YUKK!!! what a crappy day for ES

    Well, everything has happened and can happen. Based on what you say, mean reversion sounds to be the way to go. I must say that I struggle to understand the forces behind. A 10pts straight sell off from the open (just 1.5pt pull back in between) seems pretty strong for me and calls for a follow...
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