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  1. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    0626 EST 11 August 2009 Pre-market Analysis for Tuesday 11 August 2009 I don't really want to sell today. I don't have any clear cut levels that I can give. I do have some levels but they would require hand-holding. If I have a chance I'll post more later. Unfortunately I was...
  2. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    Not bad. The chart speaks for itself. Now if only I could convince myself to take the trade and walk away instead of scalping along the way.
  3. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    e.b. Partly intuitive feel, and some other stuff. That is all I can say. John
  4. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    0728 EST 10 August 2009 Pre-market Analysis for Monday 10 August 2009 I would be a seller at 115 255 on a first time approach only. I would be a buyer at 114 215 on a first approach only. At this present time, I am looking for a target of 115 165 for this move from today's lows...
  5. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    I wish I could say what I really would like to say, but I'll restrain myself, and simple say, "Well done." In any event, movie time for me, so no more posts. As far as what now? I have no idea. It looks like we will rotate higher. I think the remainder of any moves for today will occur in...
  6. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    0841 EST Looking to sell anywhere near 115 000. Target for today is 114 210.
  7. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    0834 EST Fundamental market structure change, obviously. I need to focus on trading. You know what to do.
  8. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    Thank God I posted that, even though anyone following this should have enough common sense to know it.
  9. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    0832 EST Obviously, we should fade my biases.
  10. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    0826 EST There are so many different ways this could play out. As I look at the hourly chart I see trades have been bottled up in a tight two day range of approximately 10 ticks. Yes, we've had runs above and below that, but if you just look at the hourly you'll see what I mean. I think...
  11. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    0820 EST As the 0830 Friday AM report approaches, I just wanted to mention once again that gut feels, intuition, and JP's pre-market posts mean absolutely nothing when it comes to whatever spike move the market decides to do seconds before and after. I just wanted to get that out there as...
  12. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    0805 EST I forgot to post the usual "all previously posted caveats apply." And, now at 0805, I see that already I should apologize for not emphasizing that 115 200 would be a good place to go long should we get there again. Nice 4 tick trade. More than enough for me. A little later I...
  13. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    0629 EST Pre-market analysis for Friday 07 August 2009 I'm biased to the long side today. Hitting the low as we did yesterday, and shooting right back up to the 115 200's followed by the attempt for 116 000 (which failed) followed by flirting with 115 190 again today, and now heading back...
  14. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    1053 EST OK, I'm going to focusing on trading for about an hour. I just wanted to leave you with my current assessment. If we can stay above 115 200, I'm happy and will stick with playing longs. If we move below, stay below, and show weakness below 115 200, then I get scared and won't...
  15. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    If we fail here at 115 220 (1041 EST), you might get 115 180. Maybe split up your entry? Also, I'm not liking this hesitation here at 115 220. I really thought we would be kissing 115 240 by now.
  16. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    115 160 is a powerful number, but I don't think we'll get there prior to a run for 115 275. 115 275 is what my latest calculations are telling me we will achieve IF we can break through 115 220 decisively. We might revisit 115 160 later in the day, but that is just an off the cuff comment...
  17. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    1035 EST Looking back at yesterday's 1230 EST change in trend, i.e. an upside down "U" shaped day, I must admit that was a move that I didn't expect when I signed off for the day. I was fast asleep by then. Just mentioning it to keep perspective on my posts that give scenarios for the day...
  18. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    1030 EST My best guess right now (famous last words) is that today will be a "V" day. I'm just looking at longs right now. Keep in mind that the pre-market sell on first approach of 116 020 is technically canceled. Although a sell at that level may be in order on a simple '000' playbook...
  19. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    1013 EST First target for this move is a minimum of the POC 115 210. Intermediate target is 115 250 and my further out target is 116 020. It would seem to me that the POC is a given as a target. Edited. Sorry, I get carried away when I call it right. I need to keep my balance.
  20. J

    Bond Trader 2009

    1011 EST Something significant is about to happen... UPDATE 1012 EST It could be a change in trend or a spike higher. My guess is a spike higher.
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