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Blox, Welcome, and I must say, of the get-go, I like the way you are thinking. You are not bogged down with the fact that this is a thought experiment and these are random trades, but you are trying to see 'through' the data and analyzing the underlying structure (which, given it's a random...

Olias, Not to put words in the other poster's mouths, but, in my opinion, I look analyzing a system's results compared to a system that is random ala a coin flip. Additionally, what changes/tweaks are available to move my system away from randomness AND are those changes/tweaks actually an...

Umm, true, but how many traders consider their results in light of inflation? Anyone? So, 1 point for creativity, -1 point for the red herring (http://www.logicalfallacies.info/relevance/red-herring/). Hey, you're breakeven, just like the last two coins I flipped :)

Awesome Mike! We'll see if some of the nay sayers can connect the dots... Masterjaz

Mike, Yeah, just seeing if he can rise above his pubescent attacks but I am doubtful. Maybe, just maybe, he/she/it can add something useful to the thread and my/our understanding. Cheers, Masterjaz

Sure, but it seems you are a clueless individual. I'll try this once, and only once, hopefully with less personal attacks and increased factual information. Me being clueless has nothing to do with what was said, either correct my cluelessness or move on... No,you are wrong, flat wrong...

Goodgoing, Care to enlighten me as to how my examples preclude me from trading? Also, instead of just saying JScott is wrong, why not explain it. I know what you are implying, but why not spell it out. Oh, I'll save you the effort (and to prove that I know more than I apparently...

I must respectfully disagree. I provided two examples in this thread where 'coin-flipping' can be used to in a trading environment. Now, I am not saying the markets are random or a coin flip (ala heads market goes up, tails the market goes down). But, comparing one's results to a coin-flip...

TradingJournals, Here is my thoughts on the arcsine law. I'm sure Ninna will provide a better explaination, but me putting into words helps improve my own understanding. The arcsine law describes the likely distribution of results especially related to coin-flipping like situations...

That's his argument. He says the market has memory and he can model the next price move based on the prior price move minus any 'random news'... I cannot wait to see the trolls and flaming I get when I start talking about a synthetic market price simulator--ha!!! Should have it complete in...

Agreed, that's the way I've been leaning as of late...due exactly to this topic and these results...we'll see if it works. Masterjaz

Actually should be .xlsx

Random results Cannot upload spreadsheet, but here's all you need. In 1 cell (A1) use formula =rand() in next column (use B1) =if(A1>=0.5,1,-1) in next column (use C1) =B1, then C2 on use =B#+C(#-1) Much harder to write than create. I'll try reposting later. Elitetrader giving me a...

Hi Mike and Others, A simple comparison, BVF vs. an excel spreadsheet. 50-50 probability with +1 for win, -1 for loss. Sum them up, plot it up, guess what you get...ANYTHING YOU WANT, with enough time. The entire point of the this thread is the existence of a distribution of results based...

N = 2 Surprise Now, suppose you must decide when to stop and choose between only two slips of paper or two cards. You turn one over, observe a number there and then must judge whether it is larger than the hidden number on the second. The surprising claim, originating with David Blackwell of...

Okay, so back to improving a 'coin flip/50-50' method. Today, for example, I bought NQ at 1791.75 and sold at 1819.00. My current idea is to wait for a move before entering the position, such as a retrace/pop 1pt against the desired direction. Today, I would've wanted a move to 1790.75...

Sounds good. I also a general downtrend for the 1300-1400EST time period, although with much chop...Look forward to the PM. M

Open to close, 0930 EST to 1400 EST. EDIT: The plot is cumulative points for ~900 trading days (horizontal axis) if you go long the open and exit the close. Red line is cumulative total for going long when prior day's close was below 5dma, blue line is long when prior day's close was above...

Now we have the 5dma for only the 0930 to 0945 period. A couple things to note: 1) period overall is a poor time to be long--go short! 2) Red line is very volatile, whereas the blue line is stable. I'd pick the blue line and run with it, going short above the 5dma, even though it results in...