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A couple things on this. The big banks have OTC desks for all this stuff. They're registered as FCM-BD-SD which means they can trade all markets, and have privately managed risk controls. This means the bank clients are not using standard exchange margining (TIMS, REG-T, SPAN, etc.), and they...

Weaponizing the buying power of those married-filing jointly, with interest rate subsidy, tax credits, deductions, and even having a GOVERNMENT AGENCY produce the down payable funds is in fact socialism. This is market manipulation writ large. This entire framework is inflationary and...

Prolonging the cycle with zero-interest lending will debase the currency, cause bubbles in collateral asset markets, enable zombie corporations, and ultimately will reduce the central banks ability to fight inflation. You may not get inflation right away, but you will get it eventually. And at...

When you take a society and pump everything up on zero interest money, you get some ridiculous outcomes. The 'income segregation model' of housing in the US is a failure. The real problem is people are too greedy to solve the affordability crisis. Too much special interests, regulatory...

Will independent traders (non-professional) have to pay professional data rates if they get involved with this kind of business?

I agree. The Fed and government have been conspiring to underreport, and understate inflation for decades. They ignore cyclical baskets, they don't account for shrinkflation, they substitute lower quality goods into the CPI basket, they 'seasonally adjust' and massage the data whenever...

Yes. [Dec 13, 2021] El-Erian says the Fed made the worst policy mistake in the history... https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/13/el-erian-says-transitory-was-the-worst-inflation-call-in-the-history-of-the-fed.html “The characterization of inflation as transitory is probably the worst inflation call...

El-Erain is good. President Queens College, former CEO and co-CIO PIMCO... The guy knows his shit. Curve fitting? Please. This guy is always relevant, and always informed. He was calling out the Fed "transitory" bullshit a long time ago. Long before the sell-off and long before team permabull...

$TIKI tells you where (bid or offer) the DJIA is trading at any time during RTH $VOLD (up volume/down volume difference) tells you about aggregated order flow You can watch (ES + 10*SPY) - (2*SPX) which is a basis spread (PREM). For Nasdaq it's (NQ + 40*QQQ) - (2*NDX). You can also price a...

Calling a 0.25% 2year yield "liquidity" is a gross mischaracterization of what was done. Criminal fucking banks is what we have. The idea that they could do shit like that and it would "maintain price stability" or enable "sustainable" growth is asinine. Bring on the reckoning. Long overdue.

It couldn't be more straightforward in terms of what the contract is worth. Every contract has a multiplier and a price, and it goes up and down with the value of the underlying. The value of a bond, bill, or note rises and falls inversely to yields. So, a rate future hedges interest rate risk...

What's confusing about it? The cash market is by far the hardest thing here. Calculating the implied yield, implied repo, CTD yield and yield to maturity, CTD forward yield, etc. Also, how the Eurodollar market is involved is another big question mark for me. Maybe read this link...

You have IBKR? They are cheap and do some nice charts.

TD can chart stock differentials and combine the volumes. It even has VWAP for baskets, spreads, pairs, etc. I like a linear regression moving average against VWAP. Example using the XLK/XLF tech/banks sector spread (synthetic index). You can also use the Dow tick internal -- $TIKI The...

You're just wrong. The Nov contract is quoted wide AND thin, and Dec is even worse. Too lazy to derive equivalent notional for comps, but with 3X daily moves, there's enough juice in the shares to compete, easily. Only drawback is you can't trade outside of RTH and potentially messy hedging.

Micro yield futures are quoted 4-6 ticks wide, unless you're talking about the tens. VEGAS is actually right. I was looking for exposure to the long bond with controllable fucking risk, and the micro just doesn't deliver. You can make it work with rate spreads, but even then the risks are...

Can trade mini VIX on CFE as well as 1/10th size contracts on the OSE (Osaka Derivatives Exchange). You have to convert funds into yen for margin though. https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/derivatives/products/domestic/225mini/01.html

Duration ETF's have been absolutely devastated. If one had a plan to buy and hold (2-5 years) one of these funds like GOVZ, TMF, UBT, TLT, etc., well, what exactly should one be looking at here? Expense ratio? Dividend yield? Leverage? Daily performance VS long term performance discrepancies...

Housing breaks before stocks, IMO. Powell and co talk tough, but when it really comes down to it, bunch of pussies.

AAPL much more correlated to QQQ. A call spread on the pair? Why not just long/short the pair instead with an appropriate weighting?