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another attempt of short today with a small risk. chinese getting serious with killing property bubble. Another step into trade war. Also markets at TL resistance and technical setup suspiciously resembles one in '38 when real war started :eek:

communists promised no worker without job and drove economy to the bitter end. In AU property investors are promised property prices WILL NEVER GO DOWN. And driving the economy in same direction as comms. There is a chance that it will be same final result as property lobby just too strong, same...

It will be decision in government&co to start correction. Probably when their models show prices too hot. Other option is when international lenders stop believing in sustainability of prices and this hurts perception of AU and AUD and must do something about it. Third option when China...

then i will add bit more :) It is not the worst possible solution. Letting markets play out based on capitalist criteria of supply and demand would probably produce much worse results. And governmnets know that well. Officially recognising capitalist thinking has failed. Price for that is...

landowners control AU govt, therefore policies that help increase value of land. Appartment buyers pay for it, typically ticket to AU citizenship. Who cares if there are water shortages ?!?! It is another moneymaking opportunity. Especially valuable is appartment block common pool which will...

GOC, i did not say that prices are not overstretched. But you have govt supporting property investment via tax and also direct propertyy purchases, artificially low IR policy and probably more. People believe government to take care of prop buyers forever :) That's what this bubble is based on...

dont worry about me. I got independent signal to short and not following DB. My rate of sucess signals running above 80%. But as increasing size, emotions come in play and cloud the view. But taking increased risk the only way to crack this size barrer. I have to adjust to the current size and...

using 10 year fixed rates, which is what one should use to sleep well, rents in sydney cover around 40% of cost of owning, assuming there is no maintenance required. Prices must grow 5% a year to break even in maintenance free scenario. Tax laws support "investment" in property. Also there is...

DB seem to be one of these nicely talking people, like priest or something, driving sheep over the cliff with a smile :p stopped out, spent so far 15% of my budget for this particular short idea. Will continue to take short signals and increase size as shorts now ready to admit defeat which...

comparing with crash '87.... second falls started in around late '89. depending on markets, so 2 years after the crash. Nikkei 1/1/90, ASX oct 89, FTSE sep 89, hkse may 89... SP strong but US still had recession. We are about that time right now. Considering that real recession strikes on...

im expecting full blown second leg down. why would big players allow government to dilute their value of their cash reserves to benefit small fry ?!?!? Small players are more or less in debt. No cash. So, who will win this one ? Person with cash or person with debt ?

hope your stuff works. Already added 4 batches to my short idea with minor stops. More I can add now, more will be able to add in second leg. Going for a biggie here.

Any idea why gold shares do not follow gold price? One would think stock prices would move up more than gold itself due to gold deposits.

digging thru sales a bit further, one notices dip in prices around 2006-07 which was not publicised from my memory. This coincides with mortgage rates = 8%. So, reasonably to assume 8% is real pain level, especially now as lots of new buyers came in with the stimulus money. currently rates at...

Sorry, should explain, I am not short DAX right now but short other indexes. Reasonably safe to assume they will move in sync, especially down. My longerterm signal arrived and loaded first part of the position slightly below current levels to test.

Looks like too many of us thinking the same so it probably will not work :mad: If it proves to be correct though, more opportunities to add to position as it will be longer downturn in duration imho.

Thinking a bit further I have to agree with CBA assessment of AU property. There is actually no bubble here in Sydney :mad: Affordability more or less the same in last 20 years. :confused: :confused: Australia changed structurally so that higher prices are warranted. Reason for this is...

current/future order book, that's what you need to 'see'. HFT robots have insight and win using AI to conclude future reactions of traders. Like Trader A bought, therefore group ZZZ of traders plan the same as this is repeated pattern. They know what you up to. :D You do not see that...

money is just a paper. change political system and money gets used as toilet paper. Similar with assets, they get redristributed. Too few people too much assets, triggers animal spirits in people as with just getting rid of these few, can enrich many. This guy looks like did it before this type...

hum... i have done proper research, numbers statistics, etc and here it is. Research done using historical house sale data and compared prices in Sydney Inner West which is the constant hot area due to old town feel and achieved fantastic returns, etc... as this is potential area of interest...