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It's amazing how many people here think it's different this time. Please, for god's sake, look at market HISTORY, ideally over a multi century period. Every speculative bubble pops. There hasn't been a single exception so far, and this is not one either.

My thoughts: 1) When investors reject a safe couple of percent per annum in exchange for big stock market returns, this is exuberance. In fact it is what's known as the "cash is trash" bubble mentality. If you remember, back in 2009 when investors <i>should</i> have been loading up on shares...

What I'm curious about is whatever Tepper was looking at in March 2009 that made him buy - sentiment, valuations etc. - has now changed. All these indicators have flipped from "buy" to "don't buy". Surely only amateurs believe that a single factor (Fed easing) can keep the market going up...

That's good for me too.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/07/26/how-much-further-can-this-bull-market-go.aspx This run up really is one for believers..

David Tepper wants to SELL in order to lock in all the gains he made from 2009 up to today.

Sort of, but there are other ways money can be made, too. You just need big moves in uncorrelated markets - something which has been in short supply over the last few years.

Should one adjust one's view depending on how the market does? If someone is bearish in the midst of a rally then should he capitulate as the market goes higher, "proving" him wrong?

Neither good nor bad, because I'm neither long nor short the market. I am however long a CTA fund, hence waiting for a major and sustained increase in volatility.

This is basically what's known as a melt up. Only wise people know this is a <b>bad</b> thing.

Sure, everyone thinks low cost index funds are great because the market has more than doubled in 4 1/2 years. I remember far less enthusiasm for them back in March 2009. The "CTA funds are crap" meme is now so saturated, with half of all investor monies from the peak now having exited, that...

Then again this market has made monkeys out of everyone thinking analytically, and monkeys look like geniuses..

yes

The defining characteristic of a bubble is that it feels like nothing on God's earth can stop it.

The fact the OP wants to buy a house <b>now</b> speaks volumes about his trading..

All market conditions stay the same until they change. CTA funds make money from the increase in vol and breakdown in correlations when conditions like the current ones change.

Customers :)

CTA funds are not making money for one simple reason: for the last 5 years or so there has been no <i>uncorrelated directional</i> volatility across futures markets. The solution? Wait for it to come back, and voila, CTA will once again be very profitable.

Classic top of the market thinking. It's different this time because there is one overriding factor making all others irrelevant, i.e. Fed money printing. Remember, back in 2000 that one special factor was the internet. In 2007 it was "they're not making land anymore, so real estate can only...

There are now so many articles all over the popular press and internet about what a failure CTA funds are that they are poised to make huge returns. Think like an investor, not like a sheep.