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I don't think MCD will disappear but IMO clearly accounting has been used to hide sins in many large firms since the late 1990s at least. Therefore of your 13.35, IMO 4.50 would go to lawyers, a couple of bucks to the parachutes for senior executives, and surprises would appear to claim some...

IMO each individual coin flip is random, but the sequence of flipping is not a random process. It is very clear to me that the market is not a random event, nor a random walk in my experience. Therefore a trend can't happen in a single coin flip.

Actually, wouldn't a trend indicate something inefficient about a market? After all, something that is predictive, is not priced in to the current price! This simple example has given me an idea for a new methodology and there is no TA involved in the idea. Thanks. I dealt with Martingale...

I think you have made some great points in some posts, but I am not interested in battles or taking sides one way or the other. Like everyone I believe some things about trading and disbelieve others but never think I know everything. If charting works for some people - great. More power to...

Sorry, I liked your comments. It was my poor attempt at thread humor by reviewing some of the past comments and you seemed to be supplying interesting comments and thus wouldn't get offended. (The best traders don't get emotional or arrogant as their trading persona carrys over into real life.)...

This is a fantastic statement. An edge must be exploitable - knowing 10 minutes later that the stock will move this way in 2 minutes is not really usable. In my experience, such things do in fact exist.

LOL! Busted! Your reasoning doesn't make any sense because someone from the Cook Islands who trades would point out that there is no such place as North America cause he/she has never been there! Therefore we can ignore everything else you say after that. LOL (tongue in cheek) ... and don't get...

Ask your mentor if trends can be shown to exist, doesn't it demonstrate that the market is not random? And if it is not random what other choice could exist? Markets are tied to masses of opinions (for example TA works and TA doesn't work) and not tied to any physical processes IMO. Just a thought.

Good point moonmist. I didn't express myself that well. I meant to say that in the period that I was searching for the best methodology and 'edge' I came to the realization that computers would never do it for me because they would soon be so powerful that millions of eager traders would test...

That is why I am a lonely lonely man LOL. If you give me some more background on your own background I can try to say it less abstractly. Cornix: A single trade is two conscious egos disagreeing about a price - no disagreement, then no trade. If one conscious ego programs a computer agent to...

For your own answer consult certainly one of most intelligent people IMO on this board - Nitro - where he said "Because otherwise P=NP." I think I understood what he meant while some did not but my own thought was around this Turing machine subject...

If I recall Bill's dad was an executive with IBM so that decision was interesting indeed. How did a kid with a garage get a serious hearing?

Not just successful trading but success in life in general - what we do for personal purpose so well that there is no longer any separation between I and what I do. There is a word for it that escapes me but it has been called FLOW as well. Most of us have experienced it. Risk management keeps...

I think so. Ego is a driver and the ultimate solution to trading.

At a dinner party with a failed business man in the construction industry we spoke of luck and skill in business. He failed and felt bad, his brother (host of the party) succeeded and made 25 million dollars plus. My contention then as now is that Bill Gates couldn't repeat his performance in a...

... and now the computers paint the tape (look at this reversal human) and take peoples money, the bums! Computers can't cheat us since they aren't legal persons. It is all just bad programming.

I began trading for money and for the challenge in the 80s. I never learned that it couldn't be done. I never learned about edges or indicators or methods. I learned about psychology and risk control and measurement. Later on it was more for fun, learning, and challenge. Still later on, IMO...

Good answer. He has been having trouble since about 2000 largely because the insurance industry edge is beginning to reverse. I am very interested to see how he does over a full cycle when interest rates rise to 18% again. Will he be the top investor then over the whole cycle. He also started...

History is written by the victors and so one must read many sources before a clear picture arises IMO. In a world that trades internationally, the balance of trade is equivalent of overspending. They must square eventually and someone must pay off debts eventually. The flaw is that no human can...

Wow -is that that same Harry Dexter White that the FBI accused of being a spy in the Venona project? Why did they lose control over the price of gold? Could it be overspending? Keynes has never been followed completely by the powers that be. In fact he never said to run deficits forever. I...