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FYI: the signs of pregnancy (changed hormone levels, nausea, missed period) don't usually develop until much later. you're not a father yourself are you. - jaan

http://www.nyse.com/marketinfo/taqdatabase.html - jaan

here's the plan: 1. take a stock that has been hit badly in recent days (roll a dice if you can't pick between them) 2. buy $5k worth of call options on it 3. either lose your entire $5k or cash in should the stock bounce 4. never trade again (that's the most important step) that's the...

i suggest that you do a simple backtest before you begin. that'll save you a lot of time, because i don't think your claim is true for QQQ. - jaan

c'mon, the site is a "scientific" equivalent of a trading system vendor who promises quadrillion percent ROI yet cannot tell bids from offers, and mixes up futures and options on his front page. - jaan

translation: "we have invented perpetuum mobile". translation: "we don't know jack ass about electric units, but 'amps' sounded kinda cool". total hoax. - jaan

good point. because what lundy is saying is that there's an actual person walking on this planet who threw two million at a boy barely out of his teens who promised him/her 100% a month trading e-minis! if that's really true, then i can now die in piece, having heard it all... - jaan...

the expectation is 0. one way to demonstrate this is to use binomial tree, and analyse all cases like mkmps suggested. however, there's much easier (yet equally stringent) way to demonstrate this, using symmetry: 1. if the market is random, then the expectancy of your system won't change...

it does not sound stupid at all. you'll get more winners this way to offset your large(r) losses. - jaan

correct -- and even worse if infinity gets involved... i'm well aware that there are mathematically well defined problems whose solution is beyond the limits of mathematics. see gödel's theorem for example. not to mention all the problems that cannot be formulated in math terms in the...

thanks for your proof. unfortunately, i must agree with daniel that it is not rigorous in the mathematical sense, because you made a leap of faith here: i'm quite sure that this assertion is correct, but the problem is that it does not follow (in a mathematical sense) from your analysis of case1...

that's really cool, thanks for mentioning it (i hadn't heard it before). - jaan

whoa, now i'm really starting to see the weirdness of this... the problem is that nobody has told the monks to use that particular algorithm (comparing the number of spots to number of days passed) in the first place! while it is trivial that this algorithm should be used for N=1 (because if...

i think you may have jumped lobster unnecessarily here. he said that the pofessor was puzzled about the information theory aspects of the puzzle, not just the puzzle itself. to me the monks' puzzle sounds like a variant of the famous "three hat problem"...

X = number of bricks in the wall speed1 = X/9 bricks per hour speed2 = X/10 bricks per hour overhead = 10 bricks per hour speed3 = speed1 + speed2 - overhead = (X/9 + X/10 - 10) bricks per hour speed3 = X/5 bricks per hour X/9 + X/10 - 10 = X/5 X/9 + X/10 - X/5 = 10 10X + 9X - 18X =...

first, any automatic parameter optimizer can do that, not just NN-s. second, the problem with NN-s, GA-s, etc. is that if you don't have a deep understanding, what you are doing, you will end up with useless curve-fitted systems. simply specifying "here's the T&S, profits are good, losses are...

sorry about the double-negative wording. what i meant was that all strategies DO suffer from front-running. in your first message you seemed to imply that there are some "general" strategies that are immune to front-running. - jaan

well, in my book every market property that can be used to predict its behaviour is called "market inefficiency", so that sentence would become an oxymoron. i also believe that there's NO strategy that cannot be diluted by front-running -- some just require more capital than others. - jaan

sounds like you are planning to break the guinness record for curve-fitting... :) - jaan

note that you don't necessarily need to understand the strategies. just take your best traders, and front-run their orders... i've seen so many strategies - especially in high(er) volume stocks, where the monetary potential is greatest - diluted over time, that p2's doubt has definitely...