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Medallion = mean reversion trades public funds = trend following trades Trend followers got whipsawed in 2020. Mean reversion did really well. It's not a matter of models being good or not.

After GME, I visualize a whole pile of money that just came into the casino ready to bet on anything in size...what's not to love?

2K trades to be sure it's not overfitted

Cathie Wood is a serious investor. but keep in mind that every major market move has someone like Cathie, by definition! She struggled for a long time before hitting it big. Kudos to her for holding her faith strongly, but it usually means we need to be cautious

Quant as a group underperforming is a fact. no matter how you cut up the data...more importantly, they've been underperforming relative to their expected performance (crisis alpha, negatively correlated to the market, etc.) my guess as to why quant funds (mostly trend followers) have been...

Bitcoin is like the mona lisa - its value is determined by the owners and fluctuates based on global liquidity. Why should a painting with "no utility" be "worth" $500M? because someone is willing to pay this much for it. Is it a confidence scheme? Maybe, but then again, maybe that person...

and also chinese money flowing out of China. China currency restrictions and private company crackdowns pushing people to use creative means to transfer money out of China.

you can still follow the trend and make money...who cares what's driving the rally?

Demand is higher than supply, so crypto will continue to run. there's no "fundamental" resistance or support. just ride the trends and you'll probably do okay. no need to have a view on the value in order to make money.

mean reversion systems all blow up at some point if you don't have stops

Only way you blow up is if you size it too big. 12 contracts is what portion of your overall portfolio?

scalping is definitely less risk as long as you follow your system. it's also a more consistent money maker. But i wouldn't consider your strategy scalping. more like intraday trading. still much less risk than holding positions overnight though. Generally the more trades you have, the more...

ML is a tool and like all tools, used in the right way, it will give you good results. it's no different than using technical analysis, fundamental analysis, price action or your own intuition... For ML particularly, I would try to limit the number of variables, degrees of freedom or increase...

For you to determine whether a system stopped working, you need years of data and possibly 1-2K trades. that's how long you initially determined that your system deserves to be traded in the first place.

there's always ways to make money in the market. Transaction tax means illiquidity, which means bigger spreads...which is great for some trading strategies...my guess is that you'll find new ways to make money

Trade smaller (like 0.25% or 0.5% of your capital) and take all your signals...stop trading when you think your system is not working anymore (probably after 2k trades)

Instead of guessing if you have an edge or not, just trade the strategies that are working so far and get rid of them when they stop working for whatever reason...and pick them up again when they start working again...it's not an "intelligent" approach but sure beats getting into a theoretical...

if your friend lost all of his money, i don't think whether he swing traded or day traded matter. he was going to lose all his money either way. day trading probably just expedited this.

"good" strategies are dime a dozen. everybody has his/her own way of doing things. if you have the infrastructure, just test your ideas and find the ones that fit your trading goals/personality. It will end up being a better path than working with another individual in the hope of learning...

use Tradestation...just fund the account with a small amount and you can use their system to backtest. Easylanguage is pretty easy