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When you are the head guy developing the package, and come on to a forum and talk about it's merits and profitability, that's definitely marketing.

I would say one needs to consider conventional S/R lines at all time scales plus previous day high low close, plus today's open, plus integer multiple of 10s (clean round number lines). Other sensitive areas: year to date break-even line, weekly or quarterly ranges and break-even points.

I mentioned this in another thread, but I will repeat: bar patterns on their own are not predictive. One needs to use lower highs higher lows etc. in conjunction with S/R levels. Bar patterns on top of that may help but I have always been skeptical about that. The trick is to implement...

I agree with this -- if there is no real signal, of course, optimization will only mislead (i.e., cause you to trust a system that is guaranteed to lose money). But if there is a real physical phenomenon that you are capturing that is defined by a physical parameter (e.g., the fair value as you...

May it's a portmanteau between gelatinous and jealous...

There are two types of theories that the human brain can come up with: one might be termed phenomenology, the other might be called fundamental. Phenomenological theories simply describe what is observed in the data without invoking "hidden variables and relationships". It often has more...

It's interesting that you started at that time. There was a big change in market volatility around August / September of last year. There was another change in the market since January of this year. Some of my systems show a change in performance at those two time points... Also you have to...

So how long have you been running them?

emg, seems to me you were posting calls on the ES journal a few years back, i.e., you are a retail trader. Putting that together with your blowingup story which I assume is true, then I guess: (1) you don't have the requisite higher education to make it in trading, (2) you blew up your account...

How are those 20 systems running live? Do they show similar performance as your back tests?

He is not poor, that is for sure.

If you've got all these profitable systems, are you running any of them live now?

If you think it will be useful, then why not just calculate your own range and use it? It is a trivial exercise to implement and it can be done using only daily bar data.

Thanks for your insights from an insider perspective. I would like to ask then why do the big banks and hedge funds keep hiring physics and math phds? It must mean that although they don't possess the necessary market insights (which is of course not expected of them fresh out of grad school or...

I have to say this is a bit of an overstatement and I disagree. For every problem there is an "optimal amount of optimization". The point at which optimization starts to hurt you is when you add more parameters (or complexity) than there are effective degrees of freedom in the data...

I think oldtime's point is that a master carpenter can create beautiful furniture despite using the crappiest tools. The novice carpenter often blames his ugly results on his brand new tools. I'm not saying this is you, I am just guessing what oldtime is getting at.

Of course global and local has only relative meaning: price or energy or voltage or any coordinate system only has relative meaning in the world. The point I am debating is whether there is a real signal that can be modeled adequately and this pertains to the issue of stationarity. If the...

it just sounds a bit odd how you never answered the question, re: are you shilling?

At least please learn to spell Ferrari and Manhattan before you create your stories.

Your assumption is right regard to my personal trading endeavors. However, in my day job, I am a computational scientist, and I have built large parallel systems (infiniband networked, multi-smp "fat node" systems with several hundred cpus), and I have designed and implemented parallel...