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I sort of feel that way with my ES simming. Though I'm stuck in a rut just below breakeven, rather than above. I use TICK and volume-spread analysis to handicap the odds and they keep me out of major trouble. IMO this first problem is the smaller daily ranges in ES. On wide range high volume...

I really like the stop-and-reverse idea because it potentially profits from pattern failure. Just as everyone who saw the obvious pattern is stopping out with a loss you're taking the other side of their trade. Even if you played the pattern in the traditional way you now have a shot to make...

Awesome stuff, NoD. I'm truly in awe of you traders who can run all these if-then statements through your mind and still keep a clear head in real live bullets trading. Thanks for the feedback and I'll be sure to re-read and process it all fully. Do you use a stop or a stop-limit when you...

Here's another. I got the long entry at 3am off the purple channel. I went long again at 4:30. Stopped out and reversed to short. Only got a breakeven trade on the short. I didn't pick up on the short after 6am. I didn't think to draw that channel until price already started to...

Ok, so once price breaks the level in question it should not dip back inside that level by more than a couple of ticks. Is that right? But what if price breaks out above a level then pulls back 4 ticks below it, triggering your stop? So you're now out of the trade. Would you look to...

Yeah, you'd have been stopped on the long and on a stop-and-reverse short as well. A doji bar with long wicks on both ends was the culprit. Though I suppose you could still have re-entered long again? :) In both these cases you would be taking profits quickly, and not holding for the...

Thanks - that's great info. I'll have to study this some more, and will try more actively monitoring channels and testing possible alternative TLs. One issue I'm stuck on is whether to draw lines that respect the candle wicks, or go right through them. In your chart, if I drew the...

In each case, the trade is at the far right edge of the chart. But yeah, if you use indicators then you wouldn't really be able to honestly say what you could have done. I'm mainly gearing this toward those here who are trying to teach trading on price action and nothing else, as that is...

Here is what I did. In chart1 I took no action. In chart2 I passed on the long. The reason was because the breakout above purple line resistance wasn't able to hold at all, and retraced sharply back below the resistance line. So I considered that a sign of weakness. The long failed...

Another chance to go long at the lower rail of an up channel. This is the fourth touch of the line. Too late in the move, or do you take it?

These are just potential trades I saw during my walkthrough of one days action. Should be interesting to see if anyone else saw anything different. In this chart we have another up channel. The lower limit has just been touched. Long entry if this bar's high is taken out?

Once again, answer to the last question can be found on the left of the chart. Here, we have price seeming to form a new up channel. The dashed up channel doesn't seem to be working, so I've made it dashed, last step before deleting it. So here we have price at the lower rail of the up...

FYI - the trade is at the far right edge of the chart in each example. Just in case you didn't know..... Here is the next chart. If you look to the left you can see what happened to the last trade. [img] In this example, we see price near the lower rail of the up channel. The last...

I'm going to do a series of 5 posts to demonstrate what I was thinking/seeing during one of my bar-by-bar walkthroughs. So no one can see what happens and allow that to subconsciously color their assessment! No 20/20 hindsight goggles allowed. :) I've got a large slightly downsloping...

Thanks for the walkthrough, NoDoji. Good point on the hindsight, Josh. For now I'm doing bar-by-bar walkthroughs of 6E 5-min charts. I'm not sure what timeframe or market I'd want to trade. For now it's about getting experience picking out patterns on the hard right edge. As Xpurt has...

Thanks for the advice NoDoji. Maccattack was correct in his interpretation. I considered the big green bar to be the confirmation. But I thought I could get a better entry by waiting for a retrace, so entered as price was backtesting the lower channel line. When you say waiting for a...

Here's one from today. Just watching the 5-min alone. Price closed back inside the up channel on the big green bar. I waited for it to retrace and paper traded long as noted by the green arrow. Stopped out on the red arrow. The mistake I made was that euro had already traveled its...

Just thought I'd throw this out there. I don't want to push it and try counter-trend stuff, but this is 6e trade idea jumped out at me early this morning. On the 4h chart it looked like we had completed a measured move down, so I suspected a retracement up was possible. In the lower...

And here's how it played out. After price broke out of the channel and then dropped sharply back to it just after midnight, I drew in the purple down trendline from the same high the channel started from. First pretend trade was the first red arrow. Short on a break back into the...

Ok, here's today's euro update. I've been wondering if I should put these charts into a separate thread. Maybe something like "Dave's learning how to trade channels journal" or something? :D So here's the channel I had drawn on the euro last night.