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mymini is the kind of guy that wins a couple of bucks when the ym is trending up and then loses 90% of her account the ym retraces, that's why he has to pump it here so she can recoup a fraction of her loses.

guess what. this was his best trading session ever.

ferrari or not, the only viable option is a european sports car. the us auto industry is a complete joke, it is like having a big penis but never have a hard on. i'd recommend the porsche 911 though.

it is not. selling a strangle offers just a better prob of success because the BE points are placed beyond 1 standard deviation. so instead of 68% prob of success, you might get for instance 95% prob if wings are placed at 2 SD. but the odds (expectancy) is the same, that is...

entering flies as a one time strategy is silly. the fly is a usual destination trade when you start off with outright calls or puts and begin taking risk off the table by selling premium against that holding. in the end you might end up with a riskless fly or similar position. that would...

china is the next world economic super power, something that will take one or two decades to accomplish. i dont see a great depression in china in the short or mid term because they have some many cash in hand (biggest reserve) that they can pump their economy if the rest of the world became...

i know at least one guy that will make fortune out the fomc meeting today. i just dont know which one is it (yet).:D

next thing is bernanke saying it is all ok with the economy but he has to increase rates throughout the year otherwise he will have to peg the usd to eur just to keep the inflation stable. at some point we need to figure out whether is it oil that is going up or the usd that is sinking.

ahead of FOMC, the indexes turn positive and break resistance.:eek:

i know alt-a may become another problem. but it is still soon to understand the implications of these credit problems. it all depends on the magnitude, since at some point the financial system is no longer capable of absorbing the shock. the fed is able to bail out firms to stabilize the system...

probably the subprime woes wont have a major devastating effect on the economy, probably not. but the fact remains, US is still facing a huge budgetary problem due to its war efforts which doesnt seem to ease going forward. In addition, the US economic expansion of the latest years have been...

index waves is a trading bot that defines buying and selling zones for the main stock indexes, ie the ES, NQ or the ESX or DAX. The bot has been tested in either low vola environments such as a calm uptrend seen last year or in panic selloff situations such as a couple weeks ago or during 2000...

final word of advice: it doesnt work though.

exchanges have programs for professional traders that slash commissions cost to as few as 10c per side on heavy volume. there are professionals that trade in automated mode more than 10.000 contracts, per month with just 5 lot size. here is a example. on average it trades around 200 times per day.

of course not. this strategy returns only 30% per year if properly managed. there are many CTAs doing that, you can find them at attaincapital site.

there is no viable profesional strategy based on selling naked put premium on the indexes. however there are many strategies based on selling otm credit spreads on the indexes that have demonstrated solid results especially during bull markets.

so are you saying that LTCM wasnt a S&P premium seller back in the 90s??? and their loss came solely from convergence trades?

You're talking about downside moves while I was talking about upside moves. Like I said before, since LTCM the professional options traders tend not to sell downside premium because of the perceived imminent risk of an outlier and its devastating results for such a strategy. Your example only...

in my opinion those events fall into the normal distribution perfectly well. Maybe the upside move went through 1 std deviation up to 2 or even 3 std devs which is perfectly described by the bell curve. They would take a loss on their call inventory, but within the limits of their expectations...

LTCM did in the 90s. they were the biggest S&P option seller then. And all learnt the lesson.