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  1. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    ...and a very last word to trendpullback, it`s invented and meant as scalping technique, look to L. Raschke, the person more or less making public this method..she has a mechanical "short skirt" system with ~ 66% win, claiming the discrete trades taken in her rooms are more ~90%, but this are...
  2. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    chart..
  3. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    indicators are more relliable on daily/weekly, but by trying to develop a mechanical system on the S&P you end up with the same crap, and the only way to see profits is a very complicated trademanagement with more contracts and a lot of multiple exits, adusting positionsize to volatility...
  4. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    apply MACD on 10 years S&P, looks ugly, you was just lucky the single year...
  5. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Uups, not really an uptrend, again down, if long, stopped out again, if taking the 3. long, again ironically ~11138 you could have made 5 points with exiting MOC at 11143. I never could see a 10 point stop working and no 1 to 3 risk/reward... And this chart is not too special, i remember...
  6. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Mmm, seems to be a 2 cycle pullback, the second signals seems to work, so depending on your opinion you are long again or stopped out soon from the new possible shorttrend....if long again ~11138
  7. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    i always miss the charts...
  8. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    unfortunately it is a 2 cycle pullback and retraced another leg down to 11123, 15 points down of your entry, if still looking for a continuation of uptrend... The other interpretation would be a new downtrend starting and you saw the first pullback up...did you exit, may be not if looking for a...
  9. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    chart...
  10. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Come on, you are facing a lot of probs looking for a pullback, pullbacks are made in one ore in 2 cycles, sometimes even 3, so if you take your first signal you often out with a small stop, next any indicator definitely lags and MUST lag, otherwise you have no confirmation....if you enable...
  11. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    and this is just a crude system, it simply takes any break of the firsthour`s range to fade, regardless of the overall direction/trend or the direction of yesterdays daily bar, so may be there is more to develop by looking on more conditions....
  12. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Widerangebar is of course meant on daily...yesterdays daily bar has to be greater than the average daily range(5), this is a bad condition to play openrange Breakoutsystems, trading OR BO after a daily widerange bar is resulting in a steady declining equitycurve, so vice versa it`s just logical...
  13. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    or the one contract version...
  14. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    A widerangebar is defined beeing larger as 1.3 the average daily range of the last 5 days. The Entrypoint in this crude system is simply at limit at the new low/high if lower/higher than 5 (YM) points of the firsthour high/low. Only taking entries before lunchhour, means only the next 90 min...
  15. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    I vergot to mention in the original rules for daily the last 20 bar high/low has to be 4 days away at least, so on 10 min I would suggest more ~ 8-10 bars min.
  16. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Next one you need no indicators... turtlesoup + 1... in the chartexample in the elipsearea you see the YM making a new 20 bar high at 11296 and closed over the last 20 bar high of 11285. The next bar ONLY you enter a sell stop 1 -2 tick under the last 20 barhigh... The last High before...
  17. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    missed the pic...
  18. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    if trying to fade a trend, wait for 3 cycles at least....
  19. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    People are able to count up to 3 have an edge.... :-) Except in some very trendy environment, especially creepertrends, movements are more often than not done in 3 cycles. This pattern is called 3 little indians, 3 craws etc. sometimes it`s good to have a smooth indicator like stoch to better...
  20. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    I have to add my 2 cents again...First I have to mention, this ET Forumstuff is not good for my tradingresults cause I lost discipline and have tried low probability entries in a marketenvironment not fitting my style and lost money by doing. That means I still have lot of psychological issues...
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