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    I spent 2007 paper-trading...ready for real time?

    Forgot to add my advice: newtrader8, I am in the same boat as you. I've done options tradng, but never really futures. I've been paper trading a little, and think you're ready. You have my approval :D , but don't blame it on me if you forget.
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    I spent 2007 paper-trading...ready for real time?

    I've been using the paper trading account with Interactive Brokers, had an account there with some blue chip stocks and covered calls, not too much of a gain there last year. Mainly in a trade for anywhere between a minute and 20 minutes, longer if it's working for me well. In the e-minis, I...
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    Why You Should Go Short Tomorrow

    Added some more puts in the afternoon today at about 3:45. Good deal, because futures are dumping :D .
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    What'll Cramer Say Tonight?

    He got his 50bp rate cut and was looking for a rally (although we did get a rally, reversed because of the bond ratings). He'll probably say "BUY THIS!"
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    Consumer confidence index

    Something around 85, a few points below the market expectation, is my outlook.
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    Why You Should Go Short Tomorrow

    True, but I still think Bernanke is worried too much about inflation being beyond their comfort zone to cut rates more than 25bp Wednesday.
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    Why You Should Go Short Tomorrow

    They are around where I bought them. Added some more today: SPY Feb 2008 129 Puts - $1.31 cost basis SPY Feb 2008 131 Puts - $1.90 cost basis SPY Feb 2008 140 Puts - $4.40 cost basis And, to limit my risk through volatility on the options, did some put spreads and call credit spreads in...
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    Why You Should Go Short Tomorrow

    With the good day today, I added some more puts to my position in the afternoon, making the cost basis around the current price of them. The New Home Sales were down to 604,000, actually below my expectation of 615,000, and less than the market was expecting. Durable goods and consumer...
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    Liquid Trading Afterhours

    Central.
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    Liquid Trading Afterhours

    Both YM (only now after the switch to Globex) and ES have sufficent liquidity afterhours, as I do trade them both from 6-8 some days.
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    Why You Should Go Short Tomorrow

    Obviously we did trend lower today into the afternoon. I bought some SPY puts today (129 and 130 strike) that added to my position I started yesterday. I still think my outlook is correct.
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    Why You Should Go Short Tomorrow

    That's just a conclusion I have derived form seeing all the homebuilders and analysts saying they still see deteriorating conditions and lower home-building revenue and sales. Just my opinion.
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    Why You Should Go Short Tomorrow

    Exactly. He, in my mind, is too worried about inflation to provide additional aggressive cuts other than a 25bp, which like Dec 11th, will be faded by the market. We sold off on the last ISM number as well, because of the below-50 reading which we will see again.
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    Why You Should Go Short Tomorrow

    Also, I think we might retest the lows of 2002, and with this aggressive cutting that has shown nothing reminds me of the 2000-2003 bear. People are saying rate cuts will help us so much, but really they'll just tack on more debt to the consumer which will soon explode into the multiple...
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    Why You Should Go Short Tomorrow

    Tomorrow should be an up day, due to the great earnings, presenting an excellent day to short. Look at next week: Mon: New Home Sales (market expects increase, I'm projecting 15k decrease) Tues: Durable Goods/Consumer Confidence (market expects decrease of 1.0-1.4, I'm projecting at...
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    Do you (or someone you know) borrows money from the bank to invest?

    I do borrow from 0% credit cards (through what are called App-O-Ramas, check out Fatwallet.com for more info). I have about $70,000 out right now, with about $60,000 of that in a 4.75% INSURED savings account. $10,000 of it is used on margin for futures trading (ag spreads). If anyone does...
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    Cramer calls this a bottom...

    I loved that his 2007 Dow target was 14,580!
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    Cramer calls this a bottom...

    Just heard Cramer call this a bottom... Haha I laughed out loud when he said this. Just last week, he said this was a bear market on his show and now he is back in his bullish mood. He has lost all credibility.
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    Bear Market? My guess is yes...

    I now officially changed my views to believing we're in a bear market - even though we had a sucker's rally today. Maybe the Fed will deliver next week with a 50bp cut - but probably not. When markets don't rally on cheaper capital, meaning dreadful Tuesday that generally means a bad thing is...
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    I hate you Ameritrade!

    Use www.amtdw.com for emergencies, which worked this morning when the site didn't.
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