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  1. Statistical Trader

    Alternative to fiat money

    I'll sell you my house for 75 Honda Civics, please! LOL!! o_O I think we're reading "alternatives to fiat currency" (correctly) as things that might FUNCTION as "alternatives to fiat currency." I think what OP really meant to say was what are some alternatives to HOLDING fiat currency as in...
  2. Statistical Trader

    VIX futures expiring questions

    Just as you suspect, you can't let the entire calendar spread expire because it consists of two futures that expire on different dates. When the front expires, you will get a cash settlement at expiry on the front month (VX futures are cash settled) and the second month will become the front...
  3. Statistical Trader

    Somebody Just Paid $27 Million to Have Lunch with Billionaire Warren Buffett

    Steakhouse, not DQ. Read the article. (Point still taken.)
  4. Statistical Trader

    Somebody Just Paid $27 Million to Have Lunch with Billionaire Warren Buffett

    Don't worry. Turns out it's $27 million AUD, so that's "only" $19 million USD and they'll actually go to a steakhouse with up to seven guests so overall with Buffett it's sure to be good VALUE. :rolleyes:
  5. Statistical Trader

    Buying 3x bull sp500 for long term portfolio

    LOL. Fair enough on the fill. I don't trade that far out and have no clue about the practicalities on this.
  6. Statistical Trader

    Do futures give you free leverage?

    When prices are efficient (virtually all the time for major contracts), the futures contracts will reflect dividends, interest costs, etc. No free lunch. (And by efficient here, I mean efficient with respect to other related contracts, the underlying, etc.) As far as leverage is concerned...
  7. Statistical Trader

    Buying 3x bull sp500 for long term portfolio

    If I was trying to do this, I would consider futures. Just for fun, I pulled up some ES data. It looks like ES Sep 2022 is around 3683, Sep 2023 is around 3759, and the index is around 3666. Let's take Sep 2023 just to get in the ballpark of OP's original time scale. It's trading at a ~2.5%...
  8. Statistical Trader

    Buying 3x bull sp500 for long term portfolio

    First of all, there's a question of timing your long term purchase. I'm not going to comment on that piece. I'm sure you'll get plenty of opinions on that soon enough. All of these leveraged (and even unleveraged) ETFs that reset daily have the same fundamental characteristics: they decay...
  9. Statistical Trader

    Need help calculating levels with an options roll

    The math on your breakeven is correct given the prices you state, but I think your prices are wrong. ($10+30-26 = $14 total credit; $320 - $14 = $306 breakeven.) Why would the 322.50 put trade cheaper than the 320 put if they have the same expiry?! The equity is deeper in the money with the...
  10. Statistical Trader

    What moves QQQ and SPY afterhours?

    Most of the trading after hours is done by bored apes.
  11. Statistical Trader

    MASSACRE in the market - but VIX still below 28?

    In Jan/Feb, people reduced exposure and/or hedged for this amount of drawdown, so VIX in the upper-20s is about right. If/when we go down significantly further, VIX will pop because we'll be beyond most of the hedges. Also worth keeping an eye on how VIX behaves relative to VOLQ.
  12. Statistical Trader

    That was a perfect inverse h&s today good for 30 ES points easy

    Yes, you're obviously right. I figured that would go without saying. It's just an example. Portfolio margin is also another kettle of fish. MacBookProHo says he doesn't know anything about futures, so it might help him to see it both in terms of margin and notional.
  13. Statistical Trader

    That was a perfect inverse h&s today good for 30 ES points easy

    I don't think anyone answered this question yet. 30 points on the ES x $50/point. -> $1500/contract. With Interactive Brokers, I get an intraday initial margin requirement of $15,580/contract. -> So, he made ~9.6% on the margin he put up to be able to make the trade. Some people prefer to...
  14. Statistical Trader

    Bitcoin = Tulips? Not So Much

    @GlobalMacro90 Could you please re-post the link or provide a link to the website where we can find the article? As Snuskpelle says, the link is dead, and although I found similar material, I couldn't find the exact article myself.
  15. Statistical Trader

    Minimum deposit on IBKR

    Seriously? They have a good search option on their website: https://www.interactivebrokers.ca/en/search/search.php?q=minimum+account+balance What is the minimum deposit to open an account at Interactive Brokers? There is no minimum required deposit to open a Cash Account at Interactive...
  16. Statistical Trader

    Percent Calc Problem

    "Percentage gain in PL" and "percentage gain in the account" are not the same thing. I doubt that you really want to know the percentage gain in PL, but I'll never say never. If I change the example to PL at t1 = $0 and PL at t2 = $100, then your percentage gain in PL is undefined (or infinite...
  17. Statistical Trader

    Percent Calc Problem

    As others have said, you haven't provided enough information, even if you think you have. Let me ask you this: suppose your PL at time 1 is $25 and your PL at time 2 is $100. What is your percent change in PL? Normally we would say it is 75 / X, where X is the total account value, the amount...
  18. Statistical Trader

    Early Assignment

    +1 to commissions & bid/ask. Sometimes it is cheaper to exercise. I've done that before.
  19. Statistical Trader

    VIXY

    He said "never at the same time."
  20. Statistical Trader

    VIXY

    NEVER?! It happens sometimes. Just like VIX can go up with significant upside volatility (ie VIX up, SPX up, surprising to some), it can also go down with insufficient downside volatility (ie VIX down, SPX down, surprising to some, including you, it seems). All four combinations can and DO...
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