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I tend to disagree that the VIX or any sentiment indicator is macro per se. The macro environment right now could be looked at in either a glass half full or half empty frame of mind. Half full puts emphasis on things like GDP growth, productivity, benign inflation, consumers holding up...

Next years election cycle has already been discounted by the market. The market is already expecting solid GDP growth, solid earnings, etc. IMO, people aren't screaming about a top. If you turn on CNBC, everyone is a perma bull. Larry "pro growth" Kudlow is literally dancing in the streets...

I agree the absolute level of the VIX doesn't give you buy or sell signals. It's all relative. About a month ago I had a nice position in sept 90 puts on the dow at around 2 3/4 - 3 dollar cost basis. I still have those. I think it's highly probably that I can at least get back half my money...

I'm sure the perma bull market strategists have all but forgotten about the low VIX readings. They are too busy being optimistic about a "second half recovery" and the "productivity boom" to pay attention to any sentiment readings. It's been between 25 and 19 now for 4 months. If you pull up...

Sue Herrera-Uhhhhh!!! Is there any other nationally known news anchor that looks like this? Michelle C Cabrerra-Mmmmm, she's a cutie. She needs to move up in the ranks. Kudlow and Cramer-Remember Ben Stein, the economics professor in Ferris Bueller? Kudlow should have gotten that role...

It took me many years to figure out my current trading strategy. I think the most valuable lesson that I have applied to trading that I got from another source was..."no matter how many books you've read, no matter how much thought you put into something, unless you are doing it, you don't...

It would be August 4th, 2013. In terms of the economy, I think it will still be showing some lingering effects of the great 99/00 speculative bubble. I have a hard time believing that the biggest financial bubble in American history won't show any effects 10 years out. Just look at Japan...

If you really want to improve the economy, especially for low income workers: Close the border with Mexcio! No more illegals. They have greatly increased the supply of low skill labor in the southwest, thus pushing down wages. Unless Washington gets serious about it, the number of illegals...

American manufacturing companies are having a field day using China as a scapgoat for their woes. On the one hand, they want protectionist policies, tariff increases, etc...and 280 million Americans end up paying more for their TV sets, furniture, etc because of it. Yet every single large...

After flipping through the channels, I caught Chao with the Commerce and Treasury Sec on a Wisconsin bus tour on CSPAN. I turned the channel after she was asked about the economy. She said it was "turbulant",...but things were basically ok. She emphasized all the jobs lost after 9/11, blaming...

Buy the rumor, sell the news. Saddams capture or death is already at least partially factored into prices. The news stories about American forces being with 24 hours of capturing Saddam have no doubt helped. There will be an initial knee jerk spike up when he's caught or killed, then the market...

There are other indicators signaling a top. Look at the Investors Intelligence and other sentiment numbers. It's all wildly bullish. Look at some of the stocks leading this rally. Junk internet stocks with no hope. Other tech stocks are back trading at obscene p/e ratios. This latest rally...

The VIX under 20 is like the shoe shine boy giving you stock tips. You better take your money and run. This is going to be a monster top. Just wait and see where we are in sept.

IMO, just let people open up any account they want. People can freely buy lottery tickets all day long, why not futures accounts? But then the critics cry..."oh...but you must protect the naive", well, if they are adults, who can read, then they should be trusted with their own money...

I never use to like history, but since I've been in stocks/options, market history is fascinating. Why would someone pay $1 million for a tulip? Why would people pay thousands for a "rare" beanie baby? It all comes down to market dynamics and crowd behavior. The more things change, the more...

Always think big. If you think like everyone else, chances are, you'll get results like everyone else. I always think outside the box, setting goals with triple digit percent gains for the year. Then break down your goal weekly. What does it take for you to do it on a weekly basis. Then daily.

I have a very simple trading plan: 1st rule-Have a great and compelling reason to buy. I need a clear edge. Not a "maybe" or a brokers tip or something I heard from CNBC. I only trade what I know. And I know market pyschology pretty well. 2nd rule-Never hope or pray for the market to move...

A simple reason is market pyschology. It's really not that complicated. GDP and stock prices generally go hand in hand. If the economy is down, profits would be down, and thus stock prices. But, and this is a big but, market prices are driven by something that GDP is not. Namely human emotions...

Greenspan is living in a fantasy world. He claims there's a "recovery", well, tell that to the millions have lost their job in the last 2 1/2 years as Greenie was frantically cutting rates. This has been the longest increase in unemployment since the 30's. All the kings horses and all the kings...

I was a juror on a rape case last year. In our case, which lasted 3 days, the defendent never took the stand, his background included run ins with the law, and his demeanor in court was not very good. He was the stereotypical scary black guy from the hood. He was also charged with false...