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  1. J

    Im so sick of this PC crap!

    This reminds me of the "black hoe" controversy a few years ago. A radio station was giving away "black hoes" (gardening tools!) and the Jesse Jackson crowd got all worked up about it. The BDSM industry should take notice. Refering to your partner as a "master" or "slave" may be a no no...
  2. J

    The P.C. police are out in full force!

    What is happening to this country? http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/bizarre/2270350 Women don't want to wait in long lines for the restroom anymore. So what do you know.....let's enact legislation to achieve "potty parity". Will the PC movement ever end?
  3. J

    Stock movement, standard deviation and psychology

    I never said I entered at a specific point above BB's. You're taking what I say out of context. Yes, just because it goes outside the bollinger band doesn't mean I should automatically short it. That would be foolish. I've back tested my ideas and there are optimal points of going short when...
  4. J

    Cramer & Kudlow short gold

    K&C are good for a few laughs, nothing more. What's happened to Cramer's Action Alerts plus portfolio on real money.com ? Has it ever been in the plus column? Let's see: The dollar is tanking Money supply keeps going up Commodities in general are moving up There is a major...
  5. J

    Stock movement, standard deviation and psychology

    1) Stock price distribution can't be normal b/c it's truncated at zero. 2) If you looked at stock returns instead, a lognormal will fit better - returns are positively skewed b/c of limited liability. Most you lose is 100%, the sky is the limit on the upside. 3) Kurtosis is a measure of how...
  6. J

    Stock movement, standard deviation and psychology

    Re: Gold at $887 and the crash of '87. Something that I've learned through the years that has been very profitable for me is to detach myself from reading the mainstream financial press, watching CNBC, etc. If I was always watching Lou Dobbs, Ron Insana, Bill Griffith, Neil Cavuto, reading...
  7. J

    Stock movement, standard deviation and psychology

    In regards to surveys such as University of Michigan, there is some correlation with the market to these surveys, but not alot. At economagic.com under the St Louis Fed, you can see a 50 year chart of the survey.
  8. J

    Stock movement, standard deviation and psychology

    What do I do with all of this? Find the "natural limits" of the markets (i.e. the extremes) and then go the other way. It works in any market in the world, in any security at any time. I've already done this to a certain extent. But I'm refining and constantly improving my methodologies...
  9. J

    Stock movement, standard deviation and psychology

    A post mentioned pyschology as a possible holy grail in terms of market timing and trading. I think it is the holy grail! The beauty about studying mass crowd pyschology in the markets is that it has never changed and it never will. Studying traingle formations, breakouts, technical...
  10. J

    Stock movement, standard deviation and psychology

    Bollinger Bands are simply one tool of measuring standard deviation. You could use a % away from the 10 day moving average for example and calculate standard deviation from that. You could calculate standard deviation over the 200 day moving average. There are literally infinite possibilities...
  11. J

    Stock movement, standard deviation and psychology

    I don't believe stock movement is as "random" as the EMH and random walk theorists would have you believe. Stocks, and any market for that matter still behave according to the laws of supply and demand and more subtly to the "laws" of standard deviation. If you pull up a chart of any stock...
  12. J

    Growth based on Debt

    Debt growth is completely unsustainable. If it wasn't for the explosion of credit card debt, home equity debt, you name it, the economy would be in a deep recession right now. Look at a chart of personal debt relative to income over the past few years. It can't last. I believe sometime in...
  13. J

    China threatening Taiwan; economic suicide?

    W saving Toaster jobs is like trying to save horse and buggy manufacturing after the model T rolled off the assembly line. It's a bygone era. Here's a thought: Instead of useless protectionist policies, how about taking some of that $87 billion+ being spent in Iraq and spending it on new job...
  14. J

    Trade War brewing? :-O

    Has protectionism ever helped an economy in the long run? Of course not. I hope we aren't going back to the 1930's. The american public as a whole would be better off with cheaper steel, rather than proping up a bunch of dying and decaying Pittsburg steel mills. There's not much incentive to...
  15. J

    China threatening Taiwan; economic suicide?

    Today, there is a news item about China, once again, talking about the use of force if Taiwan gets too "independent". To me, I think the western press is already anit-China and these little tidbits only throw fuel on the anti China fire. In reality, it seems hard to believe the Chinese would...
  16. J

    Cost of the War in Iraq

    Look at what W has done in office so far in 3 years: A very muddled economy. A few million jobs lost. A trillion dollars in annual fiscal and trade deficits. An ill conceived war in Iraq that is costing American lives seemingly everyday. How in the world does this guy expect to get re-elected...
  17. J

    The mounting death toll in Iraq: When does the public say..."enough is enough"?

    Today, 17 more GI's are dead in Iraq. I read the number is now over 400 since the start of the war in March. 400 dead for what? No WMD's! No Saddam! No stability or order yet. I guess the public is more worried about the job market than GI's in Iraq. But its still a tragedy. A few...
  18. J

    Wacky market?

    A strong dollar during the 90's was not the deciding factor in the stock markets gains. Falling bond rates, a high tech boom and fairly good fiscal and trade policies engineered this growth. The dollar is down since March and the market has risen. Give credit to uncle Al for proping up the...
  19. J

    Gold Market

    Thestudent, Good analysis. I would argue though that the CB's would not start to sell all their gold into a rising market. If you assume the dollar is in a secular bear market for the forseeable future and with limited options to put their money elsewhere (the yuan not yet convertible, the...
  20. J

    If you had ten million dollars...

    If I had $10 million to work with: Save $250,000 in cash, and gold in a safe deposit box offshore (Isle of Man, Belize) Any lost interest on it is negligible. Save $2.5 million in T Bills. With the remaining $7 million to invest for the next 5-10 years. Buy a few China funds. Buy...
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