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I doubt the resolve of these pansies at the Fed who will not raise rates unless there is another asset bubble that is well-formed and begging to pop, aka tech in 1999/2000 and housing in 2005-2006. These pansies will keep rates artificially low, keep pumping out more dollars and spew more...

Welcome to the United States of Zimbabwe! When in doubt, print! These nimrods on Capitol Hill are hell bent on driving the dollar to zero, bailouts galore, more checks in the mail, hey free money. Recessions are outlawed, Paulson printing like mad while stating the US has a strong dollar...

We are in a global marketplace. In times of crisis, for example in the US, the governments of the foreign countries will not stand aside and let their currencies strengthen to historic levels when that would jeopardize their export industries. The Europeans and Japanese heavily rely on...

If oil goes under $100 again, that will be the bargain of a lifetime. Simply, the emerging markets won't let that happen, they are sopping up the marginal barrels and willing to pay over $140/barrel for them. 4-5% demand destruction is not going to do it. You will need to see 20-25% demand...

It is official. In periods of crisis, people used to flock to the dollar, to Treasuries, a bastion of safety. No longer. Not with the imminent Fed bailout $5 trillion bailout of Fannie and Freddie. The dollar is confetti, adding $5 trillion in debt to the national debt just poisons the...

This is short term bearish action in crude oil. With so many people looking for $150/barrel to dump their long positions, crude fell short of the target and now late longs are left holding the bag. I have been one of the most zealous bulls in crude oil but the actions speaks loudly. Iran...

Moderators are bit overzealous, no? The following post on July 1, 2008 was considered chit-chat, not trading. I had originally put the post under trading. http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=130580 Funny how my post was spot on as how the market would behave, and...

Its a 25 bp raise. Geez. That's almost nothing. And Trichet is going to stand pat at 4.25%, so its not even a rate hike cycle, its a tiny bone thrown at the inflation hawks on the ECB. If a recession happens, it won't be because of this action, it will be because of past excesses.

High oil is only a problem for the stock market if it causes the Fed to raise rates due to high inflation slowing down the economy. High inflation with low Fed rates is a boon for stocks. Higher inflation with low interest rates lead to higher earnings, all else being equal. Deflation is the...

This is a worse stock market environment than the market in 2001-2002. Back then, their was still a buoyant real estate market helping investors withstand the storm of a bear market in stocks. Now its a double whammy from both real estate and stocks. The one positive factor that this...

The problems for this stock market are much deeper and more worrisome than a big rise in crude oil prices. When investors make investment decisions, the amount of money they pay for gas or food doesn't matter. It matters to poor people, where the cost of gas is a higher proportion of their...

Bottoms are not handed on a silver platter. This is a bear market, short term bottoms are elusive indeed, and rallies are quick and spiky. Right now, there is no way we rally sustainably with everyone looking for that bounce to sell into. We may have to crack 1250 before we get hope...

No one wants to be the sucker that sells the lows, people are hoping for the bounce to sell to the other sucker above 1300. Investor pyschology is such that a bounce from here will be short-lived. People are conditioned to buy below 1300 so that's what's going on right now, it will work until...

Tech domino is falling right now, still has a ways to go, Energy domino, the final bastion for fund managers will have to fall to have a sustainable bottom. With the OIH down less than .5% today amid the carnage, looks like we still have complacency.

Fund managers are hiding out in tech and energy thinking those stocks will avoid the carnage. The market will fall like dominoes, the financials have set things off, next will be tech and the final domino to fall will be energy stocks. Technicals are atrocious on the indices.

The rallies now don't even last 1 day. The futures are bleeding deep red and the rally ahead of the Fed and the fake out pop in the afternoon was sold within a couple of hours. No capitulation, lots of complacency, hopes for a financials bottom/crude top, there is just too much hope in the...

Fed hawkishness is a negative for the stock market, i.e., negative for the rich, it is a positive for the poor and middle class. Inflation is out of control, the dollar is confetti, but that is the only way for the US to get out of the credit crisis, to print their way out. Print or die.

Look how poorly the banks trade. Ever since the Fed has stated that it wants to support the dollar and fight inflation, the banks have sold off. A stronger dollar is a negative for stocks. The only feasible way to get out of this mess is for the the Fed to keep interest rates very low and...

Yet majority of ETers are calling for a rally next week. Everyone is a contrarian! It can't be that much pessimism when so many ET'ers are looking for a relief rally next week. Duh.....

Absolutely right. That's probably the hardest part of trading, not picking the right entries or picking the right direction, but holding on when the trade is going your way. Livermore is my hero!