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Exactly, When Beat the Dealer was written I belive a few casino's thought it so funny that anyone could beat the "House Edge" that they advertised they would send a car round to fetch you if you were a card counter. Well we know who won that argument:p

In the sense that if I go long I am predicting the market to go up yes. But in the same way I make a move in backgammon am I predicting that I will throw double sixes or that my opponent won't?

Exactly! and of course you can make money if its Random, you don't need to to predict. And yes its basically efficient because of insiders taking out the bulk. Although I still think most of the time Insiders also lose their shirts.

Adaptive???:confused:

Its random or very near to. But not efficient. Think about it if it was efficient there would be no trade Volatility would be close to zero.

I think you have a point, I have come across many liars in my time and the common denominator in all of them was they felt better than everyone else because no-one knew they were lying, when in reality most people figured it out but could not be bothered to "start third world war" over it...

The problem you describe is particulary bad with random events. I switched on the light traded I lose money must be that darned light switch, now I trade in the dark. :D

Most countries read everywhere expect the US tax you on a residency basis, if you live there they tax you on your worldwide income. So if you are a no-US citizen moving to Monaco, Switzerland or Bermuda and trading from there solves all your problems notice its not the dual citizenship that...

This is called cognitive dissonance. Basically you only change your view when the weight of evidence becomes overwhelming. I read this one paper where this Guy studied a doomsday cult. They said the world would end on a day in 1970's so they sold everything quit their jobs etc. This guy then...

Since I am asking for references to similar reasearch, what do you think?:mad:

Can you give me a few keywords to search under?

I don't think I am getting my point across, what I am referring to too is the Human bias to belive that information has more value if somebody else tells you rather than you figured it out for yourself. For example, "You say time flows forward, well I belive a man called Stephen Hawking, who...

Does anyone have any research on what I call the referral paradox. The ability of people myself included to belive that information increases in value if someone else tells it to you. Simply put is person A who I don't know tells me something about person B who I don't know. Why do I...

What Buffet says is exactly right its not derivatives themselves, that are the problem, its the abuse thats the problem.

I accept you have a point, but it may be that they still require something on your side to check. Hence the blanket up grade. I am just paranoid. Cosidering the crap I am having with the TWS today I hope the upgrade is better

Just wondering if there is something sinister in this. A few years ago a german program (JAP) used for anonymous surfing on the NET forced users to all upgrade. It turned out that the German goverment had forced them to add a backdoor to the program, to allow the authorities to snoop. Off...

Exactly I loved the bit about gravy on the rebate

I think he told me $69m. But I may be dreaming

Thanks not quite what I mean. What I would like is the ability to put a bid/offer in using the implied volatility as the parameter so as the spot changes the system changes the price of the option automatically. I realise you can program this via the API, but it would be nice to have it in...

My best was when they were interviewing some guy from a bank. He suddenly stops and doesn't know what to say. It was pretty obvious that he was reading a teleprompt.