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What make you guys think the OP doesn't have a strategy? He obviously is a n00b trader but who knows what strategy he might be using. Dismissing the strategy in and of itself is a bit premature even if probability that this strategy is -EV is likely. What if he follows a service that...

Assuming that the investor was in early enough to profit. What if you only recently invested? Opportunity cost? This also doesn't sound like an argument that would win if you insert any other fund in here. Worldcom, Enron and Tyco all made more money for me over the past 10 years than I...

Sentinel May Owe Up to $491 Million, Trustee Says By Andrew Harris Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Sentinel Management Group Inc., the bankrupt Chicago-area cash management firm, may owe $491 million because of its accounting and trading practices, the firm's court-appointed trustee said...

But the return on risk is huge for buy-and-hold vs. a system that can enter the market a few minutes per day exit. If you look at VaR you'll see that the automated system (assuming the numbers in historical testing hold true in live trading) here can be leveraged to a much greater degree than...

While real-life experience is always helpful, it's not always necessary. Your analogy above is hand picked... think of other analogies where the overall movements of a system is pre-defined. I know a very successful programmer who built a computer program to play chess that defeated the...

Your odds of winning .25 points with a .25 stop, regardless of where you think the "trend" is going is not 50%. It is 25%. When you figure out why this is true you will know this method will not work. You can use similar rationale to determine your true expected win rate with a 1.00 stop.

Do a search on "Franz" and "Traders International". Even with all the threads that were taken down for various reasons (too much dirt slinging, sponsorship issues), the bottom line is the data you need to do your own analysis has been on ET for over 4 years. People have been getting ripped...

Steve, Before this degrades into yet another insult-throwing thread, why don't you just let Bryce continue what he's doing in this journal-like format? If you believe strongly enough that his methods do not work, just let the journal speak for itself. Arguing over his retracement point is...

Before you guys beat up on Bryce and lump him in as "just another vendor", you should at least understand his body of work. Unlike TI who operate as a pure advertise & scam vendor (i.e. expensive ads in trading magazines, expo booths, share no real info about the subjective method, use...

Some irony: if you search for Trade Like a Hedge Fund on Amazon, you'll get one of those Amazon special combo offers: Better Together Buy this book with Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets by Michael W. Covel today!

MS Exchange + VPN connection can keep a complete copy of everything on the mail server. You can even configure auditing. Lose your laptop, no problem, all mail is saved on the server.

Is that a Penitum III??? :)

But how do you define trend? If it's subjective, you'll be second guessing yourself every time. One of Coach's techniques is to sell into premium, that means taking positions against the trend.

Choad, Do you have numbers for max % move up or down intra-month? A large intramonth could force IC strats to adjust...

Man, I agree with you for all cases except for what I described. You didn't read why hit ratio is of utmost important to the position I described. Hit ratio does not matter if magnitude of a trade is part of the result (whether you made 10 ticks on a trade or 1000 ticks). Thus trend...

Yes, + or - compared to today's close on major US cash indexes, e.g. SPX, DJIA. The option is entered after today's settlement, and expires after tomorrow's settlement. The payoff at expiration is all or nothing, and you know exactly what the payoff will be when you purchase the option...

I know you're an old (semi-retired) pro, but no way a neural network hits > 70% consistently predicting direction of next day's close. You can take tick data as input or any combination of market sentiment on any timeframe... it's just not possible. Add 'classic' patterns like key day...

Outside of empirical observations, have you performed any historical studies to show statistical advantage in using BB's?

One should also consider historical testing to see if the proposed TA approach to "overbought" vs. "oversold" has any +EV or is it just an illusion. Not trying to be a smart ass here, but so many ppl take an approach and apply OB/OS or trend "filters" without first validating if those...

It depends. Hate to give a vague answer, but it was a vague question.