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USO will only be a good buy if and when all the millennials on Robinhood puke out of their USO longs. Millennials are like the George Costanza of trading/investing.

Doesn't look like the WTI Jun20 front month futures will trade negative like May20 did. USO is getting completely out of front month positions/holdings for good, and all brokerage and clearhing houses are taking drastic measures to make sure their clients/customers do not have any chance of...

Funny how anybody can become a trader overnight...no formal education or previous experience required. But anybody who has been trading their whole career, can't find a "real" job if they decide to leave the trading life. Only jobs for ex-traders are real estate broker, wealth management, night...

Just like the carnage in 2008-2009 (although big banks have been spared) lots of traders, prop groups, hedge funds, and black boxes have blown up or closed down these past 2 months. It's never a good idea to treat your unprotected trading account (at a clearinghouse) like a bank account..always...

At least the dope I smoked in my 20'a didn't make me hallucinate or stay up all night. And I didn't stare at my phone the whole time during a concert, or try to film the entire thing with it. My Motorola flip phone could barely text or take photos. It's probably part jealousy and part regret on...

You should be able to see anything exchange-listed on IBKR. Maybe he was looking in the wrong place. Although IB took a $88M hit on the negative front month crude futures debacle a couple weeks ago, so maybe they're purposely not allowing their clients to view or trade any front month CL futures...

And you want to have the exact opposite (Long 1 ATM / Short 2 25d Calls) on the way back up....like how we've been slowly rallying the past few weeks with VIX getting crushed. Probably an even bigger winner when market slowly rallies to your 2 shorts.

Nah. I could never work for someone or be an employee of a big firm or corporation. I like to control my own destiny, and be fully responsible for all my winners and losers.

COVID-19 good excuse for CME and CBOE to finally close down their empty trading floors. Both layouts would make great casinos, strip clubs (think Sapphire's in Vegas X 10), or paintball arenas...which would really help Chicago's budget shortfall. Sapphire At 70,000 square feet, Sapphire...

IB probably regrets ever offering WTI CL futures and LO options to its retail customers, after getting tagged for $88M from the negative oil price debacle last week. I'm on a proprietary trading platform directly connected to the CME. So I pay too much money to see some things retail can't...

Sideways trading will destroy the IV of those calls, especially if the market is rangebound post-Fed meeting. Big violent rallies, like the 10% up days we saw back in March will keep those calls bid, but as soon as the SPX settles in a range after a big rally, they will destroy those calls, as...

Agreed. But I thought we were just talking about the OTM calls in this thread. Of course the OTM puts, no matter how steep the skew is, are a much better buy than even the cheapest IV OTM calls when the market crashes and the VIX goes from 20 to 80+. But the 1X2 (1 ATM, 2 OTM calls DN)...

The 1.00 puts are going for $8,500 apiece

The IV of those OTM calls are going to continue to underperform if the market continues to creep up. A violent reversal at 2850 or 2900 and a sustained move back toward 2600 should pump those call IVs back up. Problem is the Fed has killed the vol for this product. Fed's making it impossible to...

SK10 is mainly for equity or index traders, although I've used it for other fixed skew products. I've never heard a Eurodollar, Treasury, or commodities trader ever mention SK10 as a skew measurement. Normalized Skew (25d put - 25d call/50d) is widely used across all asset classes and often...

Using ratios like 50/25 IS normalization. Ratio-ing different delta points of the vol curve to the ATM or 50 delta point is industry standard. Your argument about the ratio between 2 delta points doesn't make any sense. Vol can go to the moon and the IV ratio can SHRINK between the 25 delta...

You would have been long gamma starting out. The 2 lower IV OTM 25 delta calls are more gamma rich than the higher IV ATM. That's called skew theta. On the way down you probably would have been slightly long to flat gamma. And you would have been long vega the whole way down. Further OTM calls...

So this clearly shows that the OTM 25 delta call IVs blew up much more than the rest of the smile when we crashed in March...albeit they probably started at incredibly depressed IV levels vs the ATM when were close to the market top in mid Feb. When we crashed last month the SPX curve flattened...

MM's are incredibly anal about their hedge ratios and greeks, so having the appropriate pricing model for their operation means everything. If you're going to trade these negative strikes you better know your risk. The guys at Ronin simply had the wrong strategy (short vol) at the absolute...

Although you would have gotten killed selling hedged OTM calls on the way down trying to pick the top in vol/market bottom back in March. I probably would have sold some when VIX hit 50, then more at 60, stopped out at 70, then reloaded at the 80 VIX level and prayed that VIX wouldn't go to 100...