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    Blackjack player beats 3 Atlantic City Casinos for $15.1M

    How dare you try to interject logic and sound reasoning into this thread.
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    Blackjack player beats 3 Atlantic City Casinos for $15.1M

    if this don johnson did it only once, at one casino one can say he got 'lucky'. but to do it at three different casino's over a short period of time is application of some 'edge' in a systemetic manner. he is not just an average joe off the street. remember he is the CEO of a company that...
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    Blackjack player beats 3 Atlantic City Casinos for $15.1M

    As they say in trading test out your ideas. Here is a Blackjack Strategy Trainer. test out your martingale ideas. do it after the trading day, because it is addictive! http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bst/
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    Blackjack player beats 3 Atlantic City Casinos for $15.1M

    I see what you mean dunleggin. Hopefully this guy one day will write a 'tell all' book! As an aside, I find it amusing that there are a dozen or more posts in this thread on the pros and cons of having this guy whacked(killed) by the casinos.
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    Blackjack player beats 3 Atlantic City Casinos for $15.1M

    martingale has been studied endlessy by black jack players. MIT team looked at it and quickly rejected it. I mean why go through all the trouble of counting cards if one can just double down after every loss! "Blackjack, however, is less advantageous than a coin flip. In 100 hands, a basic...
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    Blackjack player beats 3 Atlantic City Casinos for $15.1M

    I googled horse racing betting systems. Most of them are quite elaborate and based on statistical analysis. I think this guy Don Johnson is very smart. Started playing BJ some 15 years ago, established trust with the NJ casino's, was a 'known' customer and high roller to them. thus the 20%...
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    Blackjack player beats 3 Atlantic City Casinos for $15.1M

    wikipedia is correct. this is the result of 100's of thousands of computer simulations using basic strategy. The house/casino knows that very few players can sustain a play based on bj basic strategy. black jack is one casino game where you can actually come out ahead. even if you break even...
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    Blackjack player beats 3 Atlantic City Casinos for $15.1M

    The house/casino edge by a player using black jack basic strategy is 0.5%. an average player is probably at a 2% disadvantage. play long enough a player will lose it all, their 20% loss giveback just prolongs the play for an average player. I think in this case, they were just giving him an...
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    Blackjack player beats 3 Atlantic City Casinos for $15.1M

    Thanks for sharing, cool story. "Card counting, as has been described in yesterday’s BlackjackChamp article – Professional Casino Blackjack Card Counting Training Manual: Part 1 – requires the nerves of steel, Academy Award worthy acting ability, and the memory of an elephant."...
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    had lunch with some HFT traders

    I once applied for a job with Renaissance Technologies in long Island, NY . Nearly all of their 400 servers run Linux.
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    Best Performing Strategies, share your thoughts...

    I would take issue with your statement. some would argue aliens are also active in the emini market.
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    Probability of Next Trade

    FWIW. trade series from today, Wed 6/1/11 P1-P2-L3-P4-P5-P6-P7-P8-L9-P10-P11-P12 following the rules, waiting for a loss, I took P4, P5 and then P10, P11 net after comm, slippage, 2 ES pts system was 83% profitable. but lost $60 feedback, comments, good, bad welcome. Thanks
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    Probability of Next Trade

    Thank you zed and others for your contribution to this thread. I learned a lot. FWIW. here is the trade series from today, Tues 5/31/11 P1-P2-L3-P4-P5-P6-P7-P8 My goal is to turn the trade series into a indicator/system I came up with a simple rule to wait for a losing trade. take...
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    Probability of Next Trade

    Well, here are some stats from the system. So, I don't plan to trade the actual system, but trade or at least pay attention to trades that happen after 1 loss, 2 losses. So the system is deliberately designed to take advantage of the 'trade series.' Total Number of Trades: 830 Winners...
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    Richard Dennis - Copy Cat & Neophytes

    Some of reviews don't seem all that favorable. I was more excited to look at the bikini clad woman next to the article than the article itself. "Baghdady has made a number of fake claims in his advertising. For instance he claimed to be world trading champion 2009, however there is no such...
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    Probability of Next Trade

    Thank you all for your contribution to this thread. I think I am slightly more confused then when I first started. :confused: So there appears to be two schools of thought: 1) All the trades in a trade series are 'independent', regardless of the system being traded. 2) The trades in a...
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    Probability of Next Trade

    Some good food for thougth, thank you for your comments. A while back, in another thread, I exchanged a post with intradaybill and he mentioned 'waiting' for high probability trades was the best lesson that he learned. I believe one has to know the system, what mkt behaviour is it...
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    Probability of Next Trade

    I have not done the testing, but I strongly suspect that taking every trade will beat out trading after 1 loss or trading after 2 losses. in net profit i mean. for example today, the system generated 12 trades. 3 losers and 9 winners. almost a 70% win rate. after each loser there was a...
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    Probability of Next Trade

    good post AdamG_SMB and jnbadger. thanks. I am not arguing with you, would like to explore this a little further. I read, John Henry the famous trend following fund manager, who bought the Boston Red Sox from some pocket change he made in the markets. He said that when his funds are down...
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    Probability of Next Trade

    zero correlation? are you thinking of the coin toss example. does that apply to the mkts. please explain. thanks.
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