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it will soon be a buyer's market (in seattle) it's taken frigging long enough inventory: all time high default rate: rising buyer sentiment: wait and see seller sentiment : get me out NOW! :)

fib retracement are hardly a "waste of time". the problem comes when people think they are magick (tm). they are simply frames of references. at a minimum, they are watched by other traders, so to SOME extent become sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy. they also help you define risk...

the idea that the market should move "logically" rests upon many fallacies (similar to the absurd efficient market hypothesis.) look up the term "economic man". man does NOT trade (or invest) as "economic man". that's why, among other reasons, buffet can do so well, as can many smart...

this thread is a CLASSIC example of why retail traders so often lose lol i especially love the guy who dumped it before it ran amazing

"Joe Six Pack is not in this market anymore except via mutual funds" that's kind of like saying "sally is not pregnant except for the fetus in her womb" between 401k's, 403b's, roth's etc etc. public ownership of stock (either via mutual funds or via direct ownership) is incredibly high...

"Yes, and crude oil too. I don't think the average US citizen fully realizes how dollar devaluation, in addition to demand, is reflected in prices they see at the pump." exactly. especially since the dollar has been decoupled from gold. what exactly is a dollar worth? well, it's worth X...

"Actually, I trust the yield curve and the bond market a lot more than the Fed and it appears to be generally optimistic" um... commercial paper is where you want to assess risk valuation. that is where the market is truly pricing credit risk, etc. and it aint pretty. commercial...

the point, that many miss, is that the "market" (dow, nasdaq, amex composite, whatever) is MEASURED in dollars. iow, in the same period where we have had a 20%+ up move in the S&P (dollar denominated), we have LOST 25% value in the dollar. so, in REAL terms, the S&P has actually LOST VALUE...

markets are the aggregate of all traders action. they adapt. not in a anthropomorphic sense (like they care at all), but because they have to and of course markets will trend. it doesn't therefore follow that MA systems are a robust way to trade the markets.

moving average crossover systems tend NOT to work. because the index futures markets have adapted to such strategies and tend to be means reverting a good portion of the time. you need an edge to make money TRADING (investing is much easier fwiw - trading is harder) if you think MA...

the point is that if u use a leveraged portion of your investments to go short, it can INCREASE return, with LESS risk than a long only portfolio in the long run,succesful trading is about managing risk.

and all these people who claim it's thin are ridiculous. i'd bet dollars to donuts, none of them are trading 20+ lots, and anything less than that - the YM handles easily traders should be much more concerned with COST EFFECTIVENESS, and the YM's superior spread makes it vastly superior for...

the volume is not "so thin" the very idea is ridiculous. a decent YM trader should be able to average about 20 pts a day with 5 contracts, that's $500 a day, which is a decent income in this enviro, 20 is a bit conservative due to the volatility expansion, but in general 20 is a...

UNG is a decent proxy. much like USO (and please compare USO with DBO), ETF's can suffer (or benefit) from the whole contango vs. backwardation thang again, i am using these as a hedge as much as i am using them to make money. if you pull up a chart of USO, buying on panic (hedge fund...

to clarify another point, about statistics. my TRADING is statistics based. my INVESTING is not. thus, in trades, i don't enter unless it fits specific criteria that i KNOW i can count on to give me X point, with Y points of risk with a profitable trade V % of the time i invest with...

"Just an observation whitster. After 35+ years of trading, I would suggest that you trade to get wealthy, not trade "to make your living". that;s great. but let me repeat. i trade for CURRENT INCOME that is what i use the futures for. i INVEST to build wealth. that works (and has for...

for pete;s sake, it stayed up near the selling point all day this is not a trading room as i have said, i don't really TRADE natgas. i hedge with it, and i buy on weakness, sell into strength - mostly using UNG when everybody is euphoric, you will see me selling when everybody is...

yes. lets remember that certain markets haven't even softened at all iow, we talk about "the real estate market" when in fact there are many seattle real estate JUST hit an all time high. thus, it CAN'T be a bottom since it was lower 6 months ago, lower 1 year ago, lower 2 years ago, etc.

steely dan don't MISQUOTE me. that's deceitful at best. i said (scroll up) Tim's audited return (referring to his return as an individual during the tech bubble) was stratospheric that means, for the semantically challenged... it was very good

comparing timmy to BNB is ridiculous tim has an audited (proven) return that was simply stratospheric. granted, it was during the tech bubble (don't mistake genius for a bull market), but it is still impressive he managed to use those returns to attract a significant amount of OPM ...