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NYSE short interest recently set an alltime high. one of the things that make it difficult (but certainly not impossible) to get sustained selling in this market is because SO many people are short. you rarely see tops, or near tops, with record levels of short interest. we have had a...

fwiw, Market Profile is a trademark of CBOT. a chart program that does not pay a license fee cannot use the term "market profile". thus, many vendors that offer a variation of market profile, don't call it that.

i prefer volume based. if you are going to use time based, you can't really use a 24 hr session, because it skews the results (since very little volume can equal very much time overnight) the reason MP was developed with time as a proxy for volume, was because real time volume data was not...

"For wealth creation? Real Estate trumps the fuck out of trading. It's also much more secure in my opinion if you buy wisely...also, real estate lets you have a property with the cost of owning it paid by others while it appreciates in value and the mortgage is paid down. " that is false. we...

there is a false dichotomy here between trading and investing. they don't compete with each other. while they happen to use (generally) the same instruments, the goals, methodologies, risks, rewards, etc. are quite different. neither is "better". it would be like saying track and field...

bingo. concentrate on your setups, NOT the money if you concentrate on your setups, and they have positive expectancy, and you manage risk (don't overleverage) you will make money. if you concentrate on the money, you will not trade your setups in a disciplined manner, and then spiral...

one trader mentioned something once that really hit home with me. he runs a trading room, and he set up a thing where each member calls out ONE trade a day (in the YM) and one only. he found that these trades were very successful with very high expectancy? why? well, when you are limited to...

personally, i've gotten better returns (and i prefer) on a longterm basis, the RSP (equal weighted S&P) vs. the SPY (capitalization weighted S&P) do some research. equal weighted is broader in a sense, since the cap weighted is dominated by several larger issues.

right. that's it in a nutshell i have no idea what the market will do. nobody knows (not even the shadow) i just know, given situation X that it is (for example) a 65% chance that price will go up 10 pts before it goes down 10 pts.

"so whats high probability setup? when your making money while someone else is puking a position. When your opponent has no choice but to exit at a premium." among others, yes. certainly there are small moves that are probably not seeing major, if any pukage, but the really big moves...

"Regarding "backtesting" - over the years I've found that backtesting tends to lead to a false sense of confidence in a strategy. (Not being critical, it "can" help talk you out of things that may not work). " i've found the EXACT opposite. Again, I understand you primarily trade stocks...

"great point. i almost think there is far too much emphasis on backtesting as opposed to spending time with a setup to really learn it." not imo. how many traders solidly backtest their setups (i am talking non-systems traders)? from the discussions i've had with other traders, it's...

here's something to think about. in poker, they say if you sit down at a table and can't soon identify who the sucker is - you are the sucker in trading, if you can't DEFINE what your edge is, you don't have one. most don't

imo = "in my opinion" ime = "... experience" fwiw = for what it's worth

"Hmmm, what about the those traders that have transcended setups all together? I've seen traders that have become so tuned to the markets and information that they are acting on pure defined and developed instinct." absolutely they exist. but a very rare breed. i know one guy who can trade...

imo, before you use any setup you should have at least n=50 to give you an idea of validity. the chance of a random setup giving positive expectancy (for example 60%) with 50 trials is pretty frigging small. personally, i like extra confidence, so most of my setups were trialed over 100...

again, yes markets are NOT normally distributed. any gaussian assumptions will leave you cold i agree. that's my point. *if* markets had normal price distribution, then BB's would be MUCH more useful than they are. you are correct, if you think of them in terms of SD envelopes (and...

also, if you are looking for trading advice on ANY board (this one included) you are nuts again, free advice - worth what you pay for it usually. the signal/noise ratio on the internet is about 1/100. boards are fun for entertainment, but not for trading advice i actually find them...

T"he problem is not with the indicators themselves, but the people who use and interpret them" well, yes. and for many - the problem is indicators PERIOD. when i scalp dow futures, i use ZERO indicators (and this is how i make my income). i am not saying they are useless. some may use...

if you are not trading with statistically verified setups - good luck i mean that most people who use TA do not have statistically valid setups. they don't even test for that. the issue is not do bollinger bands "work". bollinger bands aren't (or shouldn't) be a setup/trading signal...