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oh and 240 was looking bearish at the time too.

stop: 1396 target: 1375 based on 30 min but i am thinking of closing it out at 1392 because it does look like it's turning around.

what kind of monte-carlo sim and what are you looking for?

name some of these people?

of course it's better to only have to be right 25% of the time. the math is clear, but it's easier said than done. larger reward:risk strategies tend to have lower win percentage, and vice cersa. i am not advocating 1:1 or daytrading, but the tradeoff between reward:risk and win percentage...

c'mon you know it's not that simple for most people.

short 1390

oops i double counted the commissions. what is the point of this exercise?

3 to 1: about 45% 4 to 1: about 35%

i thought a good trader can consistently capture 1/4 of a day's range. but say 1/4 of a days range is around 3 points. to maintain 3:1 then your stop has to be 1 point. that doesn't seem like it's going to work either.

1:3. i made a mistake earlier and said my stop is 3 points when it was 2 points. the stop price that i gave was 1394. 1394-1391.75 = 2.25 lol i can subtract today

i think trying to consistently capture 9 point on intraday trades is unrealistic given the average range is probably around 10 points.

took profit after i got 3:1. agree that this is a good move? or do you let it run until the opposite grail shows itself? entry exit pnl short 1379.25 1381.00 -1.75 short 1380.50 1380.00 0.50 long 1385.50 1384.50 -1.00 short...

cover 1385.5

why are you smooothing the price chart? the grails are based on rsi, and the rsi on both charts look the same.

hey romik, i don't know if my charting package does line charts. right now i just want to use what b1s2 is using. after i feel that i'm in sync with this strategy then i'll see if combining the strategy with other indicators/charts will make it better.

today might be the pullback day that b1s2 talked about. here's what i see. 60 and 240 are both coming off rsi highs of above 70. 30 and 15 both showing short grails.

another question: to maintain a 3:1 ratio, does it mean you need to enter you positions near the reaction low/high so that there is enough upside/downside left?

what if you find that the opposite grail always gets you out earlier so that your risk/reward is less than 3 to 1? also, my current trade has a 3 point stop. to maintain 3 to 1, i am looking for a gain 9 points. is this unrealistic for an intraday trade?

stop: reaction high of 1394 or opposite grail. don't really know about target.