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"Better" might best be defined on a case-by-case basis since needs, preferences and trading style vary by person. What works well for some may not be a good fit for others. Taking advantage of free trials is one way to find some answers.

The S&P 500's PE is about 19 today, and its historical average is 15. By holding earnings constant (although they are currently declining), the index must decline 20% just to match the historical average. The two most recent long-term bull markets started when the S&P 500 PE was single digits...

May I ask your basis for this conclusion?

If buy and hold is a valid strategy, then the random market assumption is invalid.

Financial statements will be favorably impacted if actual results are better than the estimated results used to book the writedowns.

Agreed.

If you don't mind sharing it, what is the basis for this conclusion?

The correct number is $83.70, not $100.32. http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS

Would you mind giving an example of a trading method that does not use data?

Hope?

Well said.

S&P 500 PE using ten-year average earnings instead of one-year earnings. Ten-year average earnings -- which was suggested by Shiller in his book "Irrational Exuberance" -- has an intuitive appeal to me because it helps smooth the impacts of business cycles and creative impulses that sometimes...

No question that lower yields are a significant contributor to higher equity prices. Valuations today are still much higher compared to other low-yield periods (1900 - late 1960's).

Bubbles may be in the eye of the beholder. By a metric I follow, equity valuations have been at historically high levels since 1996 (consistently higher during the past twelve years than 1929's peak value). This can lead us to two conclusions: valuations have hit a permanently higher plateau...

A very valuable observation.

In 2000, many people believed it very unlikely Enron would do what it eventually did. Please remember that "very low probability" is not the same as "zero probability". Fat tails can smack really hard.

What if the underlying is at $30 upon expiration?

The Fed began loosening January 2001, yet the S&P 500 dropped 40% from that time. And, for what it's worth, S&P 500 earnings are currently declining, but too early to know whether that's a blip or a trend.

Why should there be a refund if the subscription was not canceled in a timely manner?

As one measure of economic cycles, S&P 500 earnings peaked mid-year 2000. The next peak could possibly appear in 2008, assuming an 8-year cycle. Along those lines, U.S. market performance in 2000 (an election year) raises some doubt about bullish certainty next year.