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so are you saying a downside surprise in german factory orders will hit the euro at the next american market open?

so... is the real lesson to start trading full time before you get married? lol

don't forget the more obvious conspiracy theory in which bush has invaded iraq to purposely jack up oil prices for his texan accomplices.

news flash - it's not going to break out to the upside. Countries across Europe are going to be facing recession soon, and crude oil prices aren't going to go down just because of a stinking 25 bp hike by the ECB. America is sorting its crap out, and you will see the dollar re-test the 1.53 area...

How come the Euro didn't drop after the downside surprise in German factory orders? how come economic data release very rarely do what you would expect them to do to markets? btw there are probably more efficient ways of proving your a good trader other than posting "live trades" on here...

Hey, I agreed with you last night.. do I get to say "told ya" too??? lol :p

Indeed, thank you for the great insight Makloda. Do you have any thoughts on how the price action on EUR/USD will play out after the rate announcement?

Yeah, I've just about calmed down since I got stopped out of that one. It was my mistake... Everyone was saying to buy dips on the Euro and it did just that. Dip then recover. Had I followed my trading rhythm previous to that release I would have been plus 80 pips instead of minus 20... argh...

Hey tradator, read my post about PPI. The 25 bp point increase is already well priced in, and I would say that so is mention of additional rate hikes. If Trichet doesn't say anything about establishing a "series" or something to the effect that he's going to continue increasing the rates, the...

I'm going to agree with highlifejoker here. The euro is overshot.

So the Eurozone PPI had a 1.2% MoM increase in june vs. 0.9% expected. I guess that would make Trichet even more hawkish come ECB rate decision time eh? I guess not, since the euro sold off in response to this upside surprise. I mean wtf? All I can come up with the euro was overshot before the...

To the OP: I'll be blunt, the fact that you posted a link from CNBC and your writing style do not really impress your arguments upon me. However, the weakness in the dollar is a subject that has peaked my interest right now so I'd like to weigh in. Just tonight (4 a.m. CST) the Euro failed to...

I used to use a high risk-reward ratio (roughly 3:1) as you mentioned in your strategy here; take it from me it doesn't work. You're better off trading from midnight to 10 a.m. CST. That's when all the real moves happen, and that's when you can be profitable AND accurate with a lower risk-reward...

Looks like Sue Trinh needs to work on her charting skills. Maybe she meant to say NZD/USD, because the correction I was looking for finally came about about 2:00 AM CST...

To the OP: Though your charting was sound, I'm sure, your analysis was incorrect. You always have to weigh fundamentals against any technical analysis.

hahaha!

Thanks guys. I will be more careful of profit-taking rallies in the future.

Thanks for the reply. Might I ask where you read that? I didn't find anything about it on a Google News search... Bloomberg.com wasn't any help either.

Looking at the charts again, I guess you could argue that just MEETING market expectations when the pair had come off a 6 month low a week ago isn't enough to drive it lower. Apparently the finance minister made some optimistic comments about the state of the New Zealand economy. Would that...

Can someone explain to me why the NZD/USD recovered 80 pips after it was officially announced that their economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1? It matched market expectations, the USD was simultaneously strengthening against other currencies, and the price of gold was also steadily decreasing. I...