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Seems to me that some of these guys are fishing for someone with a working system to finally get so frustrated at the debate that they just give it away to shut them the f-ck up. I guess if you can't figure one out, just pestering the sh1t out of someone with a working system is one way to go...

Is the idea that you generate the entry signal, then manage the trade as if it were an entry signal from your "non-random" method? Otherwise, I don't see how you would get an average return for the sampling distribution trades. Yes, the reason I am asking about this is because I was poking...

Maybe I'm just being dense, but I'm not sure how to go about using that Excel formula output to create trades. Do you add together the resulting 1s and -1s to create a percentage return and then compare that to your percentage return?

Thanks, I'll look into that.

Wouldn't the results for intraday trading depend on how long you held? Or are you saying that, on average, for any holding period intraday, price is 2 ticks away from any other time during that day? In any case, thanks for the tip that this shouldn't be a concern for more short-term trading.

Egotistical attention-whoring.

I consider "leaving money on the table" to be when I break my rules and it costs me money, not when something happens in the market that I "could" have participated in. Other than that, I agree that the phrase is meaningless. I developed my rules to get me in to moves that I want to be in, but...

I keep a running tally of the absolute amount of distance between the highs and lows of each hour of the futures markets I follow. I don't look at it that often, but it makes for the following observation. In a given month for the ES, if you add up those fluctuations, it comes to something like...

"Puking" and "climbing" are subjective terms, although of course, I understand which direction a "puke" goes and which a "climb" goes. The problem, as I see it, lies in the fact that the market never goes anywhere in a straight line. But, inherent in the idea of a pattern, of whatever sort...

I was wondering if anyone knew about a website or any tools that can be used to generate random trades against which to test your own results, to see if they are significantly better than random. I was reading an article a few days ago and the author used the profit factor of a random trade...

I've only read excerpts and a couple of follow-up papers he posted on his website but I really enjoyed all of it. There was a thread on it here that I read a while back. Just searching on the name "aronson" should call it up for you, if you're interested. I think he is definitely pushing...

It's interesting that you put the request for a "call" in this way. I actually think this way of approaching a trade trips people up because they anticipate too much and don't get solid confirmations. The way I work is, if CL goes to price A, I do action B. If it goes to price C, I do action...

I think it's a serious thing to meet the world's densest man i.e. marketsurfer. It doesn't happen every day that someone links to a paper to attempt to prove his point and ends up doing the exact opposite, then insists he's done nothing of the sort. That kind of stupidity needs to be studied...

Look, you can't just define words and terms to fit your predisposed notions. What do you think the financial models of a hedge fund are? They are "private information" assets. The theoretical question of interest to academic researchers is whether or not the creation of these assets actually...

Once more, "private information" can include proprietary analytical techniques. It's not limited to having an advance copy of the upcoming quarterly financials or knowing that the company has hired an executive recruiter specializing in CEO searches before anyone else does.

First you accuse me of quoting out of context, now you simply assert that the terminology is over everyone's head. This from a guy who is constantly asserting that others are using "rhetoric". You sound like a lawyer with a guilty client who can't argue the facts, so he argues the law...

Dude, everyone in the world knows that if you have "inside information", you can make abnormal profits. That's why it's against the law. So, why would an academic write about "private information" with the definition you just gave when everyone knows that you can make abnormal profits with...

Eh, surf has more fun knocking down his strawmen or employing superficial understanding of concepts. It's pretty clear he has no talent for abstraction, which is absolutely essential if you are going to get out of the market's weeds.

I already told you there is an equation to solve for this to a better than chance level of probability. Do you really expect the answer to be "5" or "2" or "17" or some other point estimate? Those numbers can be the answer in a specific instance, but the "answer" has to exist at a higher...

Why do you find the requirement of specific conditions a problem? Does it lead to too few trades? Even across a wide number of markets? I'm working across multiple markets with the same strategy as well and I'm finding that at any given moment, at least one market has triggered a trade, but...