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I'm not against backtesting or optimization, at all. What I'm slightly venting about is that I would have thought after 18 trades I'd be in the black, but I'm down slightly and that this has happened to me a few times before when I roll out a new idea or optimization. That said, I'm net...

Hmmm, well, then I suppose you'll have no problem providing a link to such trivially easy to create systems, right? Not sure why you seem so insistent that I'm curve-fitting, but whatever floats your boat. The basis for this system, which I don't always use for this particular purpose, has...

Harsh. Hey, I'm sure everyone could tell stories about how their first few results ended up not living up to expectations, at least one time or another. That's really all I'm talking about here.

Yes, in-sample you can because that's where you have the control to either select or reject trade outcomes based on parameter values. I had no control over how the market played out when I started taking trades, yet the win-rate was at least within spitting distance of the sample win-rate. In...

Not exactly, because in the 700+ sample, the win rate is closer to 80%. But, there's nothing I can really do about that. Getting a really big sample of losses would require me having more data and even if I bought the data, I can't really do any automated backtesting because the algorithm is so...

Yeah, the stop-out by one tick was pretty "uncivilized" :)

Well, I call it "scalping" but it's not really that. The profit target can be pretty far away, e.g. $1 or more in Crude. It's "scalping" relative to my typical trade, though, and the target can also be .01 away from the entry. It all depends on the context. See my post above in reply to the...

I'd say it was curve fitting if it weren't for the fact that the risk-reward ratio is so skewed toward large risks (and hence large losses), so it's not as if it is some kind of perfect system. Otherwise, I would never expect to see anything with a 90% win rate. There is some optimization as...

It always seems to happen right after you either optimize or find something new, that the first batch of trades sucks. I rolled out a "scalping" system this week which during backtest had over 90% wins and an average trade expectancy of ~$200/contract. So, what happens? I have an 83% win...

I guess the reason I've never had this issue using stop limit orders is because my entries are always within a range, so I get in early on moves that are going to extend. I've only made about 40 CL trades, so I'm not speaking from a huge base of data, but if it hasn't happened in 40 trades...

Yes, I have had that same thing happen with a thin market and a stop limit. That was when I was doing some trading on the ES contract which wasn't front-month. I reassessed that trading idea and dropped it, so now I am always on the front month.

I agree. Everyone has their role in life and some people's role is to be a failed trader. When I first tried trading, I wanted to be right all the time. I still do on some level, but I can take losses with relative ease now and a winning percentage at those levels is OK. In fact, I kind of...

You know, I thought about it a little more and I think the time you enter it does matter for priority on your broker's server. At least, when I enter an order, there flashes up a number and it is always the letter "N" and then a number following it, and the number is usually a number near the...

It does seem like some of these anti-even-the-possibility-of-working-TA posts assume there are only two classes of traders: 1. Extreme "insiders" who control the markets and make a ton of money 2. Everyone else Talk about simplistic. I have worked out a price action system where I am...

No, you are right. I'd go back and edit that out if I could because that was just a brain fart on my account.

Stop limits are not a panacea, but they are my order of choice. I think that slippage is a real issue, especially if you're trading some size, but I think that unless you are getting in at prices where everyone's looking to get in (or vice versa) or you get hit by some news spike from nowhere, I...

I've only been trading CL for about 4 months now, but I've never had a stop limit order fail and it's basically the only type of order I use. I also submit my orders far in advance of the actual trade, as much as possible, so I probably have some priority among the limit orders. Also, I...

I find it funny that these guys are talking about "cycles", yet dismissing TA. If there is anything that's impossible to test, it's "cycles". Especially since every cycle seems to have some leeway to extend or contract. At least with TA, you can identify exact prices or times at which to take...

It is ironic the number of holes in these people's arguments. It's almost as if they've never learned how to do "A", much less "TA". I don't even use TA (or, I use a subset that is algorithmic, so no charts or indicators for me), but I don't go around spouting that it's impossible on the...

While it is true that ALL possible TA combinations cannot be tested, the SPECIFIC ones any given trader tries to use can be tested. If they don't work, move on to the next set of combinations.