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You know, if someone has a truly systematic way of generating losses (other than thru paying too many commissions/spreads/slippage), then they might actually have the core of a profitable trading system. The key is to buy when the trading system says sell and sell when the system says buy...

Recent headline article in the Rocky Mountain News (Denver CO) newpaper stated that local housing prices went up in July, but sales volume dropped to the worst level in 5 years (down almost 20% from July 2001). That's despite the continuing decline in mortgage rates. Anybody else seeing a drop...

Many of the postings allude to winning with indicator X or discovering the indicator Y does not work. But, an indicator is NOT a trading system. Unfortunately, most of these postings give too few details about exactly how the poster tried to use the indicator. The problem is that trading with...

It seems that no one has figured out how to actually short their house. Selling your house and renting is really only a shift from a long position to a cash position. With renting, your personal net worth does not increase as RE prices drop. In a true short position, your wealth would...

JS11374, SIGH! I hear ya! I've done more than my fair share of simulations, gotten the conclusions, lost the original data/files, and regretted it later. I do suspect you are right about the usefulness of the Hurst exponent. The fact that the calculation uses Max-Min would make the Hurst...

I see several higher-level tongue-in-cheek answers to how to interpret this test: 1) If you took the time to go through the test, you shouldn't be trading. Real traders don't leave their screens for ANYTHING! 2) Or, if you took the test seriously, it shows that you are not some knee-jerk...

Thank you JS11374!!! Finally someone who has actually looked at the statistical distribution of Hurst values. Do you recall the standard deviation on your 100,000 runs of 10,000 samples each? (I'm guessing it was about 0.07??) -Traden4Alpha

I also wanted to publicly thank janko for asking this question and thank subsequent posters for for their many useful replies. I too have wondered "if trading is really right for me?" Those who read <a href="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=6994">Unattended Systems...

Oh, and don't forget that mortgage rates don't have to go up to have the bubble POP. In Japan, rates stayed low, but creditors stopped writing new loans. A credit crunch is almost as bad as high rates - if buyers can't get financing, sellers can't sell the day the house goes on the market...

1) if they lose their jobs 2) if they need to relocate and find thier 300k home will only sell for 200k

You are right, daniel_m, I was just trying to point out that supply and demand is more complex than a simple pair of numbers (the quantity of demand vs. the quantity of supply). One must look at a supply curve (number of housing units available vs. price) and a demand curve (number of housing...

I think what JS11374 and I are asking is the confidence interval on the Hurst exponent calculation. What is the chance that a random price series might have a Hurst exponent of 0.56 or higher? Without either an analytical calculation of this probability or a Monte Carlo simulation of a random...

That USA Today article presumes that continued high demand for housing means continued high prices of housing (the old cliche about supply and demand). But high demand only creates price growth when prices are affordably low -- consumers may be willing to pay more of a house, but if that can't...

Although I am sure that the Fed/govt can jaw-bone the big players into keeping the markets orderly and can ensure adequate cash reserves to forestall a panic, I really doubt they can prop-up over-priced equities. The markets are just way too big and too liquid for governments to really effect...

The Stay Home mortgage idea sounds like just the sort of idiocy that has kept the Japanese economy in dumps. "Its not a non-performing loan, its a source of increased future revenues." This is especially scary since you KNOW that many people are rushing to buy or re-fi while they still have a...

Actually, if you trade weather futures, you just might have to meet a margin call after 3 days rain. Now if both meteorologists and stock analysts were forced to take financial positions to back up their prognostications, the world would be a safer place! (Actually, it would be a quieter...

My parents financed the construction of a new garage with credit cards and balance transfers - no finance changes for about two years before paying it off interest free. It sure beats getting a home improvement loan at some stingy bank. Although the card companies won't let you take cash...

You might also check out "Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets" by Edgar Peters which has some explanation about H. ArchAngel is right both in terms of the meanings of different values of H and in terms of its use in trading. H runs from 0 to 1, with the two halves on either side of H=0.5...

Take a look at www.traders.com. They have both EasyLanguage scripts and discussion boards. Also, Runningbear (on thread <a href="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=6994">Unattended Systems Trading?</a>) alerted me to www.reefcap.com and they also have a discussion board...

Both Rigel and chasinfla are right -- Japanese gov't policy and cross-holdings exacerbated both the run-up to the bubble and the continuing sorry state of affairs in the land of the rising sun. Japan has had effectively negative interest rates in recent years and masive public spending with no...