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Actually, the three sayings succinctly cover many of the most important issues in trading: <b>Trading is the art of getting out of your own way...</b> Reflects the difficult psychological and cognitive barriers to successful trading -- undoing a billion years of evolution to succeed in this...

As metooxx would say, "no"

I'd love to hear this one too! Hmmm... what if Stephen King ran the SEC? Besides, the thought that the markets are random has really scared the willies out of me! It better not be random! Looks like I'm not going to sleep tonight, so you might as well scare us even further.

Rogue made my day! Once the secret is out, we'll have to discuss why the markets may be more like the "mind reader" that many people realize. As a practical joke, this one turned out to be extremely practical.

Isn't the key found in the balancing of attachment and detachment? Having the single-mindedness to get things done, but the open-mindedness to admit that you could do them better? Attachment is a prerequisite for learning -- fixing a pattern in one's mind. But detachment is a prerequisite...

I think the balance point between the technical (objective) and the psychological (subjective) sides of trading come down to avoiding certain all-too-common trader death traps. I've thought of a few of these death traps and the stereotypical trader personalities that go with them. All of them...

Sometimes when trading is going poorly,:( I feel like an unbounded-irrational utility-minimizer.:eek: Wishing unbounded profits for the irrationally exuberant, Traden4Alpha

The results look good, but to assess the expected future performance, we need to know HOW you created the system. You don't need to tell us the detailed rules, just your approach to creating those rules. <b>Do You have Future-Leakage?</b> You mention that the system does not use future...

<b>Addressing Concepts, Not Details</b> I'm glad that you could tell that I was trying to address the concepts underlying your approach, rather than the specific numbers. Too many discussions devolve into simple arguments about the details -- missing the more interesting conceptual points that...

J_Commisso, keep'em coming. Trading is knowing that sometimes you fail the rules Trading is knowing that sometimes the rules fail you Trading is distinguishing between bad trades and bad trading methods

Trading is the weak-hearted selling to the bull-headed Trading is the optimistic buying from the pessimistic Trading is winners and losers interacting with losers and winners Trading is a multidimensional optimization problem embedded in a self-modifying environment populated by...

<b>A Control System: Regulating Risk Rased on Recent Performance:</b> It sounds like profitseer wants to create a control system for choosing between two (or more) risk levels of trading. If trading is proceeding well (meets or exceeds win targets and well within loss limits), then higher risk...

Well, I decided to derive the answer myself. The intermediate results looked pretty ugly until the whole thing simplified down to a ratio of sums. The result is that Neff, the effective sample size of an arbitrarily weighted average, is: Neff = ( SUM(Weight[i])^2/( SUM(Weight[i]^2) ) )...

Anyone know how to compute the effective sample size for variably-weighted moving averages? Many statistical analyses take the sample size as a variable. This includes: calculating the standard error, correcting the standard deviation for small sample sizes, doing the z-transform of the...

I named/renamed the file to have a .zip extension and that worked for me. Good luck, Traden4Alpha

I discovered that PM backups seem to be compressed files. Try unzipping them. Cheers, Traden4Alpha

You're right, I am complicating things. But, I have found that sometimes the devil is in the details with trading. Little discrepancies between the simplified, idealized model of trading and the actual mechanics of trades can nickel and dime profits down to losses (or provide extra nickels and...

<b>Benefits of being assigned?</b> Ok, I can see why having your sold call get exercised might be beneficial. It is an enforced way of cutting losses short (the person who bought the call would likely exercise it if the stock had moved sharply upward, meaning your bet on a downtrend was wrong)...

It is certainly true that a synthetic short (buying a put and selling a call) has the same P&L vs. stock price curve as a regular short position if you hold the options to expiration. But I wonder about a range of other differences between these two strategies. <b>1) Is the net delta of a...

Thanx profitseer and inandlong for your kind comments. I also thank you for your insightful comments such as profitseer's semi-sarcastic one about traders using indicators to avoid making hard decisions and inandlong's point about the importance of understanding the derivation of indicators...