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So coming off a fall from the 635 area in the OEX down to the 612 area and then having a single small up day where many of the OEX calls actually fell in value that day your system says to buy OEX calls, and you didnt tell us till after the OEX was up over 8 bucks?

So let me recap here. Until today you had not mentioned that the VIX was a component of your system. Until today the systems exact prices for entry and exit were predicated on the open, close, and range of particular options, not of the index. Also the open, close and range of those options...

I am not defending anyone or any product. OEX options are plain and simple not a screw job in the way they’re priced. In fact they’re priced for the most part just like any other option. Since the OEX is a single listed product only on the CBOE he bid offer spread is a bit wider then many...

The VIX index is a lagging indicator since the price of the VIX index is derived from the implied volatility in the SPX options. Now you’re saying you have a VIX component in your programs? You might want to define the term “discount” in the context of the way you’re using it...

You’re making my case for me that the real time price of the option and yesterday’s last trade has no relationship. Therefore your claim that you can time the market based on the open, close and rage of the previous days in that option can not exist. There is nothing special about buying...

Does it really matter what is included as long as its the same stuff each month?

Since the SPX is cash settled you're right that on expiration you're net delta is going to change substantially since all the in the money options are going to settle into cash. The offset is either doing a deep time spread for fair value with someone who needs the opposite delta you need to...

I have not made any assumptions. The problem I have is you don’t seem to grasp the FACT that the price of the options is not predicated on yesterday’s options prices. The “system” can only pay what the offer is in the options, whether you call it retail price or not is irrelevant...

My bad.. I thought the OP was asking for our guesses on the govt number coming out. I reread his post. Sorry.

Since your expenses and consumption varies and its not a detailed statistical look at prices, nor does it cover more then a very limited geographic area, your guess at the increase in expense of your lifestyle has no relevance to the national CPI number or its accuracy.

Since you have no basis to calculate the CPI number and if the govts number is different then yours you have already determined its manipulaiton whats the point of posting your guess? Does the CPI number have any real effect on you? No matter what the number its not going to change the amount...

That would throw a huge damper into his "system". I believe I mentioned already that there are many times where the index could be up and the calls down due to implied volatility and its skew.

Again since there is nothing in your program which has the ability to calculate the future value of options and the move in the underlying which would cause an options value to go up 25% is different each day can you please explain how you your system can predict the odds of an options future...

Perhaps you can answer this question then? Since your system does not have the ability to calculate the value of any options since it does not use any of the information which the options prices come from how could it predict the odds of a 25 % increase in the value of an option? The...

You're sure you want to say that your system predicted that the economic data which came out this morning and flipped the futures from a negative opening to a slight positive opening even now that the markets down purely based on the last 20 years of date on options open, close and range?

Pre, Of course, thats basically what I am saying. Since the options price is not independent and its value comes from the underlyings value in addition to other factors, then its that underlying which you need to use as the basis for any system. This is not a new concept.

Well you have my condolences if you let people who correct your facts upset you to the point where it raises your blood pressure. Having had a lot of experience with vioxx and knowing it has been off the market for several years now the effects from it should be long gone from your body. As...

I was on Vioxx for severl years myself. Its been gone from the market for several years, good riddance.

Thanks I am not looking for help. The problem is you lack a basic understanding of how options are prices, why and how they move and market mechanics of options. Options are priced based on 5 variables: 1) put or call 2) days till expiration 3) implied volatility 4) the risk free...

IV yes I agree they're important on the underlying, not for the options price. Jeff is implyig that tomorrows options prices are based on comparing those factors in options prices going back 20 years.