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I believe we have put in a short term low in Cocoa on a 9 day demark buy countdown. Not only have we come into interesting chart support but I truly wonder if the Ivory Coast will be able to sustain peaceful electoral processes in October. My idea is that they won't. I, however, remain a...

interestingly though, midday boxed beef px's higher

so with august futures trading at a steep premium to cash, what sort of convergence if any does one expect ? wouldn't it be of sense to deliver against the august contract rather than sell with this poor basis?

hey, between you and me taking a spread trade is directional as well, with plenty of risk.

tks.. so what's ann's profit strategy if this is her take ? Two words, kids: RANDOM WALK. Do any of you out there honestly believe that there are guys in smoke-filled rooms who are accurately forecasting all of this? There aren't. The only way a person can be consistently profitable in the...

joe, but those results are for feeders. where can one see the texas 79-79.5 trade u mentioned in live?

Where did the texas auction results come out?

as in feedlots "offering" at 80 ?

mucho beef in feedlots means mucho price decline no? anyway , i bought the 86/82 put spread on dec cattle. figured i better spread my strikes more. i bought yesterday into that bullcrud rally when i saw midday choice prices down, yet again. choice/select has been getting crushed lately...

Unless I'm a retard, this looks pretty bearish no? COF : 104 Placed: 110 Marketed: 106 herd up 4.6% from 2005 U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 5 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.9 million...

reestablished corn bull call spreads and shorted LCZ on strength. LC rallied today as it was the 9th demark buy countdown. i guess i did "right" in covering my long put yesterday. now, i'm just betting into the COF report. we'll see.

ey no liveliness on the cattle board. bleh. very pissed today, got chopped up on some december 86 puts. my tech discipline tells me we retest the highs before we breakdown. my gut tells me we breakdown lower here and head to 80. bid/offer in options sucks pretty bad. i'm getting the...

thanks, so what did you guys think of today's action? LC closing under 20 day MA , charts looking heavyish? for some reason I feel offers are going to chase bids in cash trade and we'll be trading 80 by end of week, but i'm not cash connected. looks like choice and select continue to weaken.

what do you think about the grains here. i still think we have some work to do on the downside but i'm eager to buy weakness. incidentally maybe weak grains support feeders on monday and helps fc outperformance to lc

and it looks like the spread has corrected since mid june, wonder if its still a good entry point

so we'll stick to the ratio spread b/w feeders and live.. 2:3 ratio is because the typical gain of weight occurs in this ratio correct? from 775 to 1300 for example. Nevertheless I wonder how truly market neutral 2:3 is. If we go limit down on both one day its almost like you're long one...

here is a very cool breakeven link. could the commercial cash members please explain how to fill in each field variable? less familiar with some of them... http://www.imiglobal.com/breakeven/feedyard.htm

81, 81.5 cash trade??? looks like an ugly monday then?

i closed my feeder put spread today ; not because i don't believe in the trade but because in retrospect i structured the strikes poorly. long 114 short 112 gives a net delta that is ridiculously small ; not even large enough to get any movement to cover the bid/offer spread when putting the...

looks like it has setup for a demark 9 day sell setup; would wait for a break of two day earlier lows to confirm.