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First argument, clearly deflationary. Second not obviously inflationary I think. If US government’s propensity to borrow continues, and the Fed are forced to take over because the rest of the world lose interest, long rates increases? Will foreign bond dumping put more upward pressure on long...

Harry Dent makes some interesting predictions. But NASDAQ at 13000 or Dow at 30-40k before 2010 is probably a little bit to optimistic. Buying what is not housing correlated is probably the best way to play a perceived housing bubble. I chose to buy bonds back in April when I anticipated the...

Almost perfect correlation between IYR and the Dow Jones Equity REIT index, so there can't be much difference in weighting between the two. I brought IYR in because it was easier to find information about the yield for IYR than $reit.

About 18% of $reit is residental, 26% is retail (should follow the housing marked closly).

Whats up with REITs and IYR these days? Looks like the biggest bubble around. I stopped buying REITs eight mounts ago, because I thought the housing slowdown, and the not so attractive yields would stop the run. Now I almost laugh when I look at the $reit index. 3% yield on IYR, that’s...

Seems like the liquidity kick from the anticipated rate pause/easing is over. Oil down, $xau down over 6% today and 13.33% the last 4 days. Inflation fear seems to have disappeared. I don’t think bonds will rally more until, the economy gets real slow, or short term rates are actually lowered.

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Somebody have to rape the concepts of how to rape men, and ur raping those who do.

Hmm, maybe not a bad name. Voodoo a religion practiced in secret by slaves. Libertarians will always be slaves since they don’t have the desire to rule others and thus don’t have the same motivation to play tug of war games.

The problem is of course force. I would never want to live with a wife that forced me to give away my credit card. Money buys power, power buys money, it’s a game. Most love the game it seems. Those who don’t are forced to pay the cost.

Not a bad plan since low rates is exactly what US, Europe and Japan needs the next years to take advantage of this period with high labor supply and make as much real investment as possible to prepare for a period with less labor supply when the boomers retire. But… Nothing works out as...

On one hand: The Economy is unequal to the Stock marked. Stock valuations aren’t bad at all. If a recession kicks in inflation, short and long term rates will go lower. The 7.3% yield on the S&P 500 will then look very attractive in a relative way. On the other: Can continued globalization...

I assumed to much, In Norway the CB Norges Bank is state owned, and are instructed by the government to keep inflation at 2.5% over time. I assumed the Feds aim to keep inflation low in the US also came from government instructions and the main difference between the Fed and Norges Bank was in...

Ok I have not thought this completely through, and not done proper research, but isn’t privately owned central banks a safety net against socialization. If the central banks are owned by government, government could in theory confiscate all wealth by printing money fast enough and hyper...

Lets say you have two economists, one is named white the other one is named black, both can predict economic performance 5 out of 10 times correctly. White’s thinking is in tune with most economists (conventional thinking), while only a few economist thinks like black. White would probably...

yes the funds do it, but its wrong because they deliberatly hide their skill?

Thank you, amazon next..

I’m really not sure how much point there is in having a fed chairman, but how can any person constantly have better judgment about the economy than the market? The market judgment is based on those who have proved to have good judgment and have voting power according to their past success.

I find the fact that you and many others wants government officials to be more than rule following agents kind of scary. If the fed is data driven to keep inflation steady at least it can’t do as much harm as it otherwise could if it should use its judgments based on the big picture.

Exactly, a housing led slowdown or recession. Unlike the equity led recession after the stock market bubble 2000, the consumers are not here to the rescue because they have too much debt. Highly indebted consumers can only mean one thing, less potential for consumers to borrow more. This should...