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winners and losers (and thoughts) so far this year. short ES @ 2347, stopped out at 2397. loss circa $2k. Still believe the market is going lower, had been looking for the market to fail but in retrospect probably should have waited to see if the market traded through the big figure. long SB...

Wheat coming back to confirm a break of the 200 day moving average? Wheat is making some appealing price movements recently with a sequence of higher lows and higher Highs since the December low near 420. It broke impressively up through the 200 day moving average towards 520 before coming...

Sugar starting to turn nasty The charts are really starting to turn ugly for sugar. The unusual event on the 27th and 28th of January aside the market attempted to re-establish a position above 13.50 with the support which had previously held at the level not providing any protection...

Lumber finds buying interest at the 40 day moving average. I think lumber has given me enough confidence that it's holding at the 40 day moving average to go long. I like the fact that it's a relatively smooth trend and the pull back has been relatively modest with no major danger signals...

and it closed above 1.50 yesterday. it was a good spot.

I like this one, will probably get on board. I also like the fact there was high volume on the sell off on the 2nd and 5th of March then after that the support held at the 40 day moving average. The fact that there might be some catch up vs the other expiries is a bonus.

Cocoa continues higher, how long before we get a pullback? This very bullish run continues from cocoa with a huge positive signal on the charts although the speed of the rise concerns me a little. I don't know whether the price action has tripped off a series of by signals from the machines or...

Is this is the Geman book? Have not heard of the Courtney Smith book either so will give that a read. Trading spreads is a another knowledge gap for me. I really liked the Kub book on grain markets, was pretty comprehensive break down of the practical process from farm gate to delivery and...

I'm still on it but pretty nervous. 5 units long now at average price of 2167 on my 'retirement' account (restricted spending until I'm 55yo or harsh tax treatment in Australia) and 4 units long in my everyday account at an average of 2203 - didn't take exactly the same trades due to other...

That's awesome. Thank you.

Also do you have any recommended generalised reading for inter/intra Ag commodity market dynamics or is each market a completely specialised set of reading? For increasing general contango is increasing oil price something you are already factoring in or static oil price?

Ah ok. Understood. Thanks. CTS = commodity trading specialist (floor specialist?) What's TT stand for? Does IB stand for interactive brokers or inter bank or investment bank? (Can't think of another IB) When you say 'Money coming from equities' is that because they are expected to buy near...

Hahaha thanks. When you say shorting the forward curve do you mean selling far dated contracts and buying near dated contracts for the same product in expectation that the forward curve will narrow (flatten) or invert and go into to backwardation?

good stuff. I will also head to the exit. small loss but better out than out of business. re: the cocoa relative prices: Yeah I am blind to that sort of stuff. I realised a while ago i am not good at making relative / comparative judgements on fundamental news or data - example is the fact the...

Nice one. What was the turn around time on that one?

Cocoa makes a new high, next stop CAPITOL CITY! Apologies for the Simpsons reference in the title. Yesterday's moved through the resistance created by the previous High was a very encouraging sign and now leaves a bit of open space in front of the price. I had to go back to a monthly...

I like the rejection of the June 2017 low around 32 on soybean oil however the sequence of lower highs and the lows since November are too much for me to get on board at the moment. I would like to see a move through 33 either in a steady sequence of rising price action or a large bullish...

Thanks that's very helpful to give the price action some context. The price is now sitting just below the 40 day moving average so I'm just going to sit and watch it for now

Ethanol is trading sideways at the moment in a very tight range around the same level that I initially got in. I'm just waiting for the next definitive move in order to either add to the position or to exit. It's clearly trying to close above the 1.50 level but has been shut down every time so far.

Cocoa consolidating and I want to take some risk off the table. At the moment cocoa looks like it is slowing down compared to the recent momentum. I think Wednesday's session qualifies as a day of uncertainty for me and it was a high volume day. I think the wise thing to do in the short term is...