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I want to get a head of next year's nightmare. Can anyone recommend Windows or online software that integrates with a Schwab account trading short UVXY, various futures, as well as stocks and equity and ES options. One that separates 1256 trades and K1s without me having to?

Ok, they settle like an index option but track a future contract, right? It's an odd duck, I guess. Didn't know that SPX options were the same kind, either. Always thought they were index options. Do CTAs run them or RIAs or both?

I'm curious how are VIX options defined if not as futures options?

Lost me on this. If you have a sec, want to run an example? Thanks

Just an additional follow up on the VIX options. I thought it was especially odd of Schwab because they have been, on another regular trade, great, better than IB or Merrill, in locating shares of UVXY for me to short.

Yeah, I was surprised, too. and I called them and they confirmed that so far they just don't like the risk profile of the product, although it may be an exchange issue or some clearing issue, or even SPAN, I suspect. I have portfolio margin, futures options permissions, SPAN (obviously), etc on...

I must have been vague, but my broker does not allow VIX options, just VIX futures. If I am long the futures, how can I get a risk/reward profile similar to selling 10 VIX calls on that long VIX futures contract?

I was going to possible dip my toes in a long VIX futures position if it drops low enough but I just found out my broker (SCHWAB) astonishingly doesn't traffic in VIX options. I guess they would rather have me naked, lol. So if I can't go long one VIX futures and sell 10 VIX ATM options, is...

Thanks. I think to describe a pairs trade, I'll stick to the number of points rather than a percentage and show them a chart.

Ok, in a pairs trade, lets say ABC is trading at 100 and XYZ is a 90. Is the spread 10% (10/100) or 11% (10/90)?

and the delta should give you a rough estimate of the odds, right?

Sorry, brain fart, meant like 0.018 or 0.020

Are you saying Kelly only works when you stand to gain more than you are risking?

Does that just cover the grains?

So how does that translate into "odds"?

I wonder if there is a guide or book that describes or even somehow quantifies the importance or lack of importance of contango/backwardation in various futures.

Ok, I'm writing bear call spread, at least that's what IB calls it. Way OTM, like one wing of an iron condor, ok? Now what are the odds that I would plug in for the Kelly?

I'm looking for a natural gas futures price that shows the futures curve, similar to the excellent VIX Central and it's charting of the VIX. One exist?

I read somewhere that contango/backwardation isn't much of a factor in the metals as it is in the ags and the oil complex. If true, how come?

I'm tinkering with the Kelly formula and it makes sense except when it asks me for the odds. Does that mean if I am writing a spread with delta of -.98, way out there, my odds are 1:98 and how is that expressed in a percentage or decimal?