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Until I get more experience, the equity to sustain the drawdowns and the confidence to know I can come back, I can't and won't trade my beliefs. For right now, I trade what I see even if it conflicts with my beliefs because they're two seperate things and generally on different time frames...

The irony is a lot of people (seem) to agree with the currency regime change, but they believe it's the other way around: The Euro on the cusp of taking over the USD. It may, but I can't see that happening; while the US has problems, so does Europe. The difference from where I sit is the...

It's really more a feeling than anything. I see the Euro-zone spiraling into a complete socialist "paradise." There's just too many issues going on there that they don't seem to be addressing. I also have a sneaking suspicion that the Euro currency may very well end up being dissolved at...

Points well taken. I guess I have a short bias on the Euro because over the long term (years), I see the Euro dropping against basically every major currency, but I try not to allow that opinion to color how I view things over the short term. It's been a rough few months for the EUR/USD as it...

No disrespect intended, but it sounds like you're trying to find reasons to justify phantom Euro strength. From what I've been reading, the Euro-zone fundamentals haven't been good at all. While the U.S. data hasn't been too good as of late either, I think it's a case of the evil you know vs...

Ahh, gotcha. Thanks. I'm new to FX also, but as I tend to be more of a swing/position trader, I find I can move from pair to pair fairly seamlessly.

Chinook, Just curious if you only trade EUR/USD or not? If there isn't much going on in the pair, couldn't you look towards another pair? Personally, I'm "trading" USD/JPY. This is more of a position trade for me; I'm planning to hold it for a few weeks, adding positions each...

I agree on all accounts; that's why I've been looking into the fundamentals more. Right now, I'm not doing poorly, per se, but I think as I develop my point of view more, I'll feel more confident about things and do much better. I just need to (and do) keep telling myself that I'll get there...

Absolutely. I also think you need to have a certain level of acceptance: acceptance of the fact that you won't always be right, and there's nothing wrong with that, and acceptance of the fact that it's simply not possible to capture every little move (especially the short pullbacks and...

The problem with that, I've been finding, is two fold: 1) That doesn't allow much wiggle room; 2) The times that a 10pip s/l could be feasible (for me) is when there's already a strong move going on, and pyschologically, I have a hard time taking those kinds of trades. I always worry I'll get...

True. I'll get there eventually, I'm sure; it's just a question of when. In regards to EUR/USD: The analysis I've been reading (mainly from www.saxobank.com) points to continued gains. Going off the shorter term, I'd say things look good at least for a few more hours. Though, who knows.

Could always be worse. I'm sitting here watching the moves, being right on direction and not pulling the trigger. Why? Beats the hell out of me. Sure is annoying though.... :D

Thanks. If/when I make any option trades, I'll post them here.

Not necessarily. Refco doesn't structure their options - I don't know if this is typical of forex options - like regular options; there aren't puts or calls. I also can't sell options through refco; the way around it is they afford various conditions that sort of mimic puts and calls. I'm...

Actually, I've been looking at Saxo Bank. I'm most likely going to open an account there, but I want to give it a few more months first. I think I may be able to make the options through refcofx work, so I think I'm going to take a shot at a few of them. I was playing around with it...

I haven't been trading forex too long, so take this with a grain of salt, but from what I've seen so far: The running up/down signals may be useful; channel breakouts; retracements/fibonacci; moving average crossovers; and if it could be modified, the sector signal may be useful because from...

Ah, I knew there would be a catch, and there is: they define a range of prices that you can choose from. I need to play around with it a bit more, but I'm not abandoning the idea of options. I also figured there would be a catch in terms of the premium paid, and there is: one option I was...

Thanks for the information. Looks like we both go after the reversals, though I don't really trade the news - atleast, not yet.

Baruch, Actually, I've been doing pretty well with options on equities, but that's beside the point. :D Basically, the way refco structures their forex options is you decide on a payout, pick a price, then a condition. For example, you can say that EUR/USD will hit this price by this...

Would you mind describing (in as much or as little detail as you feel comfortable) what you use to make your decisions? Thanks, Steve