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I found it intriguing after reading this that a system data-mined for qqq did as well or even better in tlt in a falling market with a long/short pattern ratio of 2...

Rambo did one on himself...:)

My opinion only please respect; one min data = noise pf 1.5 in 200 trades = noise live for 3 days = noise/luck Take the same strategy and test it on another equity in the same sector. What do you get?

BUt opportunity to trade something else more profitable is eroded. Besides if inflation starts going down again these will lose money.

I like this definition. Thanks abattia. This makes sense to me although it does not encompass 100% of all trading opportunities it is definitively a good percentage of them. I also believe that the random versus not random and skill versus survivorship bias is a stupid issue for people who...

Most trading wizards put a lot of emphasis on high probability setups but then came some smart paper traders and said that it does not matter if you are winning 30% of the time if you make more than you lose on the average to have positive expectancy. But the expectancy equation does not take...

I had 60 winning intraday trades in a row some years ago and then I got a streak of 153 losing trades when the bot of the brokerage figured out what I was doing. I then tried for a year after changing my style but no gain. So I switched to swing trading. Maybe 5 consecutive winners followed by...

Every thing will destruct one day. Imo try to exploit patterns for as long as you can. Instead of demonizing patterns try to find ways of detecting their destruction.

Spending 0 is a trend but I wonder whether that also means making 0. :)

Backtesting is one of the most misunderstood and dangerous practices that is the main drive behind the massive failures of newcomers to trading especially those trading futures who do not understand how to properly adjust contracts. I know of no trading platform that properly assists traders in...

imo 100K per year is the absolute minimum that differentiates pikers from serious traders,

Forex charts differ from vendor to vendor so they are not useful. Can only win in forex with chartless methods like for example what is done in this blog for ETFs but adopted to forex for calculating probabilities of swing moves without even looking at charts but using only raw data.

Prediction is NOT probability. it is equivalent to prophecy. If you want to imply probability better use the word forecasting.

Step: 1. Make 500 2. Lose 50,000 3. Make 5K 5. Lose 500,00 6. Stay out for a few years 7. Lose 100 8. Make 100 9. Delete all 10. Become an investor :)

= trading system paradise:)

+ 1 so he knows....

When you stop looking at charts you will start making money.

Excel is just fine for the job no matter what you trade.

What is the "TopStepTrader combine " and why trading ES? THis thing is just too liquid. Too liquid = no opportunities.

Viva TA! Way to go...