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  1. J

    Middle class revolt

    If there are so many "astute" traders on this board, then why aren't they challenging the myth of globalization? Gee, anyone who actually trades stocks should know that American factories have been humming along nicely, with sharply growing revenues and earnings. Caterpillar -- 20 bil in revs...
  2. J

    Middle class revolt

    The article gives hope that the middle class is beginning to connect the dots: globalization cannot explain stagnant wages and rising profits. Wage earners are told salaries must be kept low in order for U.S. companies to compete in the marketplace. This is the conventional wisdom on...
  3. J

    Stocks are Going to EXPLODE Higher

    Good call, super-ego. Nice rally today. The weekly chart of the SP500 is solidly bullish, with a very sustainable slow grind upward. Note how On Balance Volume has made new highs, suggesting a bullish divergence compared to the early 2001 high at 1308. Stochastics are overbought, which is...
  4. J

    GM - how long before bankruptcy?

    Not taking sides in this one ... but, factually, you have to give GM credit for a good showing in the 2005 JD Power reliability survey. * Lexus 139 PP100 * Porsche 149 PP100 * Lincoln 151 PP100 * Buick 163 PP100 * Cadillac 175 PP100 * Infiniti 178 PP100 *...
  5. J

    New Orlean based quoted companies

    Maybe another angle to your question is, "What stocks have a high degree of exposure to the Southeast region?" Try http://www.google.com/search?q=southeastern+site:finance.yahoo.com/q%3Fs Some examples ETR CTL MDR SGR FCX HIB STEI DDS BLS WINN SONC RVI HUG PTRY ASO DRCT...
  6. J

    Why not trade price ?

    IMHO if you're trying to interpret what's going with volume inside of a single bar or candle, then you need to drop down to a chart with a shorter timeframe. The value of interpreting volume with price is apparent over several bars on a chart. Reading price and volume together can help you...
  7. J

    Muni Bonds

    Student - for bonds with coupons I'm still seeing a haircut of 35% or so. You can also do a 'clean' comparison by looking at price and coupon. For example, a 2-year T-Note trading near par has a coupon of 3.75%...
  8. J

    housing crash

    lilboy716: I think your post about gas prices raises an interesting question about the real estate bubble. Will the price of gas be a catalyst for higher rates of home price declines as a function of driving distance from major employment centers? One can imagine a bubble deflation occurring as...
  9. J

    Muni Bonds

    I guess I never understood the appeal of muni bonds. The yield is always discounted by an amount more or less equal to the top federal tax rate. While the after-tax yield of a T-bill or T-note is the same as a AAA muni bond, the risk of default is not. The Treasury bond is virtually risk free...
  10. J

    Why not trade price ?

    You can trade price alone, but price alone may mislead you. Consider: day 1, up 0.50, vol 20,000 day 2, down 0.75, vol 200,000 day 3, up 0.50, vol 15,000 day 4, up 0.50, vol 20,000 By price alone the stock is up 3 days out of 4. But when volume is considered along with price, the...
  11. J

    housing crash

    "The Bell Has Tolled" More Sacramento R.E. Softness excerpts (c) Sacramento Bee Region's home sales signal softer market 'For Sale' signs mushroom, stay up longer By Andrew LePage -- Bee Staff Writer Published 2:15 am PDT Friday, August 19, 2005 It's a sign of the times: Jim...
  12. J

    Good Read on the Real Estate Mania

    True for equities but not necessarily for real estate. In equities markets go up when bears call a top because bears provide fuel via short covering as well as bears capitulating and becoming buyers. In stocks sentiment is everything. Real estate is like a margin call -- forced liquidation if...
  13. J

    When Do Bond Yields Really Hurt Stocks?

    You mean the Fed Model. Currently the S&P 500 at 1,231 has a PE ratio of 20.4. This implies a 30yr T-bill of 4.9%. The actual 30yr T-bill yield is 4.57%. If you think 30yr rates are going to 6% in 2006, that would imply a PE ratio of 16.7 under the Fed model, or a target of 1,000 on the S&P...
  14. J

    When Do Bond Yields Really Hurt Stocks?

    Today the 3-year Treasury note was auctioned for 4.2% annual yield. That's not a bad rate of return for a risk-free investment (assuming held to maturity). At least it's not completely laughable -- I mean, it wasn't that long ago that short-term bonds paid 1% or less. If rates continue to...
  15. J

    My Views

    According to the 2005 SSA Annual Report of the Trustees, the OASDI portion of the SS Trust Fund: revenues +657 bil benefits paid -501 bil net increase in trust fund +156 bil current trust fund balance +1,687 bil SS is close but not quite pay as you go. SS taxes are generating...
  16. J

    My Views

    I believe one of the major shortcomings of Social Security is that the trust funds are not actively invested. The world's best pension system, the California Public Employees Retirement System, is a model of how a retirement system should be run. Last year employees paid in $2.2 bil, the...
  17. J

    Distance from MA

    A whole mechanical trading system has been built around this concept of a price's deviation from it's moving average. It's called "x dev": http://stockwerld.com/ebayrfmd.gif http://stockwerld.com/xdevwerks.htm
  18. J

    CNOOC a threat?

    The Chinese buy out IBM's personal computer unit, and now the Chinese want to buy an American energy company that extracts oil and gas from U.S. lands. Where does it end? If the Chinese buy all of America's manufacturing base and commodity companies, then do we not just become a colony of...
  19. J

    housing crash

    Sacramento county, California: real estate owners heading for the exits?
  20. J

    Why Are Treasury Bonds Taxable?

    Why is the interest on treasuries taxable? When the government issues a bond, it is borrowing money from the public to finance the public's debt. Interest is paid is fair consideration for the public's loss of use of the principal. When the government taxes the interest, it is essentially...
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