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  1. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Went short the MiniSPX @ 1960, stop @ 1975. Sold some of the BR2037 (@100) that I bought last week @93...
  2. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Nice... let me know if it works...
  3. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Another point came to my mind, the bid/offer spread for BZF seems to be very wide.. My IB is showing 12.32/12.44 market implying almost 0.80% spread...
  4. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    The points you addressed are all valid, but if its better to carry BZF than the future itself there might be a free arbitrage there and I find it difficult to believe (I am almost sure the BZF Manager hedges the fund expousure using CME or NDF with banks)... Did you check if the return from the...
  5. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    The bid/offfer spread will cost you about that per year... However the ETF manager will pay at least this amount to roll thei ETF exposure as well...My point is why pay someone to do exactly the samething I can do myself?
  6. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    You just need to buy the CME Future, hold it and roll it. The spread is wide in the screen but if you want to buy or sell the future at a specific price, its very unlikely that you are not filled if the BMF price goes there... The spread for the roll is not wide, and IB comissions are low...
  7. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I didnt know about this, I never touched ETFs. So what you are saying is that you got cash that day as a "dividend" payment?.... One question for you, I am a non-us resident and as fair as I know the only US tax I have to pay is a dividend tax. I believe you have the same situation than me, why...
  8. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I didnt know about this ETF, but I personally dont like very much using ETFs for this purpouse if I can build the same exposure myself using futures...Check the graphic attached, a comparisson between the ETF and BRL and you will see there is a day in 2011 that whoever was holding this ETF...
  9. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    LuisHK I purchase these bonds trough an offshore company and I will have to pay taxes when this company pays dividend or there is a capital reduction...
  10. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Daal my argument was a simple one.... If you have cash invested in overnight rate in Brazil and abroad and you want to run $X risk in brazilian equities you are better of to use the cash you have abroad because the overnight rate in Brazil is 14.25% while abroad is zero (or negative depending...
  11. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I have a problem buying Brazilian Equity with the money I have locally because the cost of opportunity is enormous (Interest Rates is 14.25%) however, offshore is a different animal since the cost of opportunity is Zero.... Nevertheless if I want to run Brazilian Risk in my offshore money, I...
  12. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Dall I use IB. In some bonds, like the BB2049 that I mentioned the minimum ticket is 100k bonds (around USD80k...), others like the BR2037 the minimum ticket is 1k bonds....As fair as I know you cant escape from trading the min. ticket....
  13. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Daal you know I am becoming more optimist about Brazil for the simple reason that society seems to be moving toward a more conservative and market friendly country. I have strong confidence the next Congress and Government will be the most conservative and market friendly Brazil ever had...
  14. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Very interesting, thank you for your answer... In the last flash crash did this divergence really happened?
  15. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Daal I dont think its right to add the state company debts on the Government balance sheet unless you realy believe they will be belly up in the near future, which seems to be a very bearish assumption. Regarding Petrobras, although I cant say that being long the company´s bonds is a safe play...
  16. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Why do you trade SPY instead of Mini SPX?
  17. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Daal nice trade, congrats.
  18. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Even Roubini is Bullish... http://www.thetrader.se/2012/02/07/roubini-bullish/ SPX to test 1430 before the end of 1Q?
  19. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Its amazing how bearish people are. I am starting to think that if this EU Summit creates some time off for Europe (before the EUR collapse) we might experience a year end rally. 1. The last US numbers have been better than expected 2. US Companies are reporting stronger than expected...
  20. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Ralph I can not agree with you. IMVHO Trichet is fighting for the end of the EU, if you look back the European Union was the biggest trick ever considered. The big countries (Germany, France, etc) lived with a currency much more devalued than they would have if not for the EUR (looking at the...
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