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Agree. I sense a parabolic rally to blow out all the bandwagon shorts is approaching - THAT will be when to aggressively short - aggressively shorting after the drubbing the market has taken and hoping for a 1929 scenerio is poor risk/reward in my opinion.

Banks trading dry today...a tell??? :confused:

Who cares? Just ignore him...honestly, are we all 5 years old? Jesus.

This is false - see VIX from 1996 to 1999 and compare to SPX. As for the rest of you post, that is just your opinion on how things will play out - were you trading in 98? The fear then was very similar to now and many made similar arguments - hedge funds blowing up etc. A major bear market...

I just don't see how you can be so confident of a bear market when the monthly charts are still in an uptrend - ie no lower highs, etc. Sounds more like a gut feeling than anything.

Timewise, I think an intermediate term low is close at hand. Percentagewise, we could waterfall 5% or so lower or hold around here. We shall see.

I agree - strong parallels between now and 90, 94, and 98 - could spike another 5 or 10% lower from here, but I don't see an extended bear market.

Explain why it won't be like 98 and will instead be a long bear market.

Carry trade unwind, hedgies in panic mode

Great analysis - what are you basing this on????

lol, it has been a winning strategy for the last 4 years - whether it fails now, time will tell. What's with all the smartass theads on ET anyway - bull and bear? First big rally we have there will be a bunch of threads like "Bend over shorty!!!" - fucking pointless.

Fear is reaching a crescendo

1380 looks like a nice spot...

Try to be more analytical and less emotional. The market is down barely 10% and people act as though the world is ending, lol.

LMAO at all the fear on here

lol, indeed :p

Take a look at 1998: the SPX fell a bit over 17% according to my rough calculations and then the market kept rising until the REAL bear market began in 00/01. So far we are in a sharp downtrend, but anybody saying a new bear market has begun is just being dramatic.

Downtrend for sure, but bear market no. The monthly charts of the SPX and INDU haven't even made lower highs or anything which would signal a major change in trend. Not saying a bear market hasn't started, but it is too soon to call it that IMO.

Are you serious? I think the definition of a bear market is one down 20% from its highs and we aren't there yet. Everyone so quick to call this a bear market, lol.

Short side getting WAY to crowded me - I heard some guy at the mall telling his buddies how shorting is such a no brainer.