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This is a hotly debated issue since the guy is so high visibility. Anyway, I found a site that actually follows and tracks all these guys and Cramer is one of them. I won't spoil it for you and I'll let you discover his hit % yourself. For fun you can take a guess before you look :)...

Well it seems that some kind of valid backtesting is necessary - whether it's automated or manual. The way I understand it - the biggest problem with backtesting is curve-fitting.

I think that markets change. And that's been pointed out by some of the posters above. I've looked at the best systems at Collective2 and the cream of the crop did well for 2 years, most good ones - only a year. I think markets change and the patterns that used to repeat themselves go away or...

I think my question is reasonable.

So is everyone supposed to find their own edge? No matter how long that takes if ever? The best you can get is someone telling you "hey look in that general area!" ? I know guys who've been losing or bleeding slowly their accounts for years. Some over ten years. The screen time thing isn't...

It seems everyone who is willing to teach can't trade and makes a living selling educational materials. And those who can trade are paranoid (perhaps rightfully) about sharing their method. How can I find someone who can teach me for a reasonable cost? I don't think this is a stupid question.