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    Random Walk Theory Proved, once and for all.

    The "smart money theory" is ludicrous. I find it amusing that people actually believe professional money managers actually know more than the average investor. Granted, there are some people who consistently outperform the market so there is some "smart" money out there but these guys are a...
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    Random Walk Theory Proved, once and for all.

    The question of whether the market is random or not is very straight foward. Use a simple formula in excel ---->>> =randbetween(-1,1) and this will give you an output of -1, 0, or +1. This represents your tick. Add this tick to the previous price, which is how the stock market operates. In...
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    University of Trading

    If you find your trades are approaching your stops quickly and you find it necessary to average then it's fairly straight forward that you lack patience on your entries. This is exactly the problem I had when I began trading. What I did was take the first two triggers in a sim account and the...
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    Bullet-proof martingale!?!

    I don't know if there's a pdf but this book is worth its weight in gold. This book completely changed my perception of the market and trading in general. Truly a great book!
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    Bullet-proof martingale!?!

    Yeah I know, I was just messing with him.
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    Bullet-proof martingale!?!

    My God! This is EXACTLY how I used to feel and I was a consistent loser. I mean LOSER! I couldn't win an f'n trade to save my life! Dude, you gotta read "Trading in the Zone," by Mark Douglas in a hurry. "But I prefer to be in the market all the time." ------>>>> This is absolute death...
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    Bullet-proof martingale!?!

    You just nailed it!
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    Bullet-proof martingale!?!

    Damn good post. Sure wish I understood it. :confused: You're one smart guy Stoney! :confused: :confused:
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    a question to the day traders

    Look for stocks that are very liquid and have the potential to move a point or more at any given time. A $10 stock that does 500k shares just won't work. A $150 stock that does 10+ million per day is ideal. Different traders have different preferences so run a scan for stocks that are above...
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    Bullet-proof martingale!?!

    Ahh...Martin himself! In a nutshell....imo...a double bottom with lower lows has a higher prob than a single V-bottom. I'll take a V small and a double bigger but there is a lot of judgment involved.
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    Bullet-proof martingale!?!

    Ahhh....now this is where we disagree. The longer a trend persists the lower the probability it will continue. I fade moves so if I sell a move up and I get taken out I'm looking for something more parabolic. If I get it I'm hitting it harder. If it's the same lazy drift then same size...
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    Bullet-proof martingale!?!

    I keep very detailed records and examine my trades very closely. I actually use three methods. Same size, martingale, and average. It would take me a while to describe when I use which one but suffice it to say, I'm looking for distances between support and resistance levels. If I take a...
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    Bullet-proof martingale!?!

    You can't blindly follow a rule like this. What if you come across that "exceptional" setup, based on your past experiences. What I do isn't necessarily a Martingale but rather, a bigger line on a trade that has a higher probability than one with a lower probability. In order to truly be able...
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    Bullet-proof martingale!?!

    You are right, even with an edge you can blow up. You have to have a circuit breaker that will cut you off when you reach a certain point and hope they don't kill Bin Laden just after your put on your fourth short.
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    Bullet-proof martingale!?!

    I use it very successfully. I posted something to this effect a while back and the ET parade nearly ran me over, lol. Expect some slack on this topic. If you have an edge without using a Martingale approach you will have a razor sharp edge with it. If you don't have an edge you will blow up...
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    whip saw action is severe-very tough

    Today is PERFECT trading. If you need a trend to make money you shouldn't be trading.
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    The M.I.N.D Game

    LOL. Looks like this thread is pretty much dead. The OP is gone and the ET mongers have taken over. There's no place like ET for a good laugh! Thanks JJ!
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    My First Futures System

    Sounds as though you have a good starting point with this. Good luck!
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    My First Futures System

    Consider doing just the opposite that you mentioned. When price goes parabolic down and goes -3 std dev's buy. Add to the trade when your other conditions are met and when you go parabolic up reverse the strategy. Open an account with TradeStation. I believe you only need 5k and backtest...
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    My First Futures System

    Selling into the 3rd deviation is definitely a sound strategy tho.
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