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I though so too until you marched in to demand that everyone stop posting and go away. If you don't like what's being discussed either offer a dfifferent prespective or leave those that care to dialogue in peace.

Not certain if you are responding to the general topic or my prior post based on the imagined system with science fiction like performance. In this case the assumption is that low latency was irrelevant since the system accurately predicts future market activity within a given time window...

While the question is intersting it isn't worth spell checking. Please tell me a bit about your goals on ET? What purpose does it have in your life: 1) Impoved trading 2) Social networking 3) Other How are you feeling at this time? Does making making a post on ET change those...

Does anyone have a theory on why ET attracts this kind of behaviour from posters I assume our out of junior hihg school?

What software application were you using if you care to say? All applications that I know of get to the point you ended and then apply your end state to an new data set called the test set to determine viability on untrained data. The difference is measured. The internal parameters are...

Like a good carpenter I use a fair number of software tools. Of those listed I occasionally use Rapid Miner and S-Plus. I also use a number of others. What you are looking for in a NN application is the ability to rank the final weights given to each input variable. In general terms this can be...

So the two components are close and exponential smoother. Components 14 day RSI: 1 - 14 : daily gains each day 15 to 28 ; daily losses each day 29; Average gain 30 Average loss total components = 30...

The reason is you are using linear math in attempt to model a non-linear system. Try taking your current logical design and run it into a non-linear predivtve analytics application. See:http://www.kdnuggets.com/software/index.html

RSI Calculation 100 RSI = 100 - -------- 1 + RS RS = Average Gain / Average Loss Average Gain = [(previous Average Gain) x 13 + current Gain] / 14 First Average Gain = Total of Gains during past 14 periods / 14 Average Loss =...

I've found that in some cases a NN will learn more from the mathematical components used to calculate the indicator along with the indicator itself. Keep in mind that indicators were invented to dumb down complex market dynamics so it can be shown on a 2 dimensional chart. NN are inherently N...

Yep, and regression as implemented in a NN is recursive adaptation or curve fitting to map input neurons to the dependent or output variable. Philosophically, if we ignore the hidden nodes, weight functions and a few other things this is exactly what happens in most trading system optimizations...

Your experience is common. Successful usage in this very complex area often requires an MS in Computer Science. Kicking around a few data files seldom does it. To your point on data: A large training set is required along with smaller sets for test and validation. For hourly EUR/USD about...

You’re not going to find many large or small institutions who will reveal much about the specifics, either for the conceptual design or software used at the center of their automated trade decisions. It’s a highly proprietary and competitive area. Your best bet is to find firms making the...

RandomCapital, Your understanding on data mining might have some random ideas mixed in. Perhaps you'd care to read the definition of data mining on Wikipedia? Data mining Data mining commonly involves four classes of task:[11] Classification - Arranges the data into predefined groups...

The weights for the NN or any similar analytics software are not picked by the human but discovered by the software. The process is similar in some ways to learning in the human brain (which is why the software is called a neural network) through trial and error. Like learning to ride a...

Could you explain what you mean? A predictive model, which in the case of say an neural network is in simple terms an optimized set of weights and connections strengths between say perhaps a few dozen inputs (TIs, mathematical measures, etc) and an output characteristic say a 5% rise in...

Thank you for your thoughts. I cited indicators as a way to simplify the example, however they have serious limitations: 1) Most were conceived and designed decades ago long before our current computational and data environment. 2) They were designed to simplify market conditions for human...

Anyone have any thought on the difference between bad and good curve fitting? Bad Curve Fitting Example: A trade strategy with 8 technical indicators each with say 2 parameters and 2 rules. You optimize all of these and you appear to have a profitable system. However on unseen market data...

Winstin, Thanks, (I guess) for your participation. However you're on the loosing side of this trade as a number of us have found the discussion to be very useful. I especially liked confirmation that the easiest way to steal a system is to reverse engineer it from the actual trades. If...