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I'd be curious to see the trades your backtesting produced for today. Can you post them?

My point is that unless it is "supposed" to be a certain way, there would be no way to answer your question. :) As far as I know, there are no rules saying that it is supposed to be a certain way. It just is what it is.

How is it supposed to be?

I guess it depends on what you consider "good signals". The only good signals with this system occur on those specific times - period. Is that logical? I have no idea. It is logical in that I can logically explain what the rules are. Are they good rules? Only time will tell. The time...

No, I wasn't trying to say that at all - I wasn't very clear. I'm saying exactly the same thing you are saying - I just didn't say it clearly. I'm saying you can't look at any system and say that it has a 50/50 chance of being profitable. Once you include a "system" in the mix, you can't...

Sure it does - it might be a positive edge or a negative edge, but it is certainly different from choosing a totally random entry point. Entering on a fixed time is no different from entering on any other indicator - be it mathematical or subjective. Some people enter a trade when the fast and...

I don't know that I couldn't - but that isn't the point. If I find that 9:33 works, why would I want to try any other time? There is no need to see that other things do or don't work IMO. As far as stochastics go, you can take those out of the equation if you like. Use anything you like -...

Every trade, no matter your system, technically has a 50/50 chance of being a winner (if you don't include B/E). IMO, it's okay to have an average loss that is higher that the average profit as long as your ratio of winners to losers allows it. IMO, when you have a system - no matter what it...

Not sure how I came up with the +1/-1.25 - just seemed to work. Someone with a lower risk tolerance might go for only +.75. Basically, there is no specific reason for those numbers. I haven't really looked at this for NQ, but off the top of my head I'd probably equate the +1 ES to +3 NQ...

Hybrid - I haven't really thought much about that problem yet - I'm thinking maybe one more -1.25 stop and then quit until the next trade. Need to figure out if there is a balance of just taking the original -1.25 vs. trying to reverse and ending up -2.50 total for the trade. I think the...

Surf - The offsets from open are simply fibonacci numbers in sequence. Basically picked that out of thin air for no real reason. Other numbers may work just as well or better.

Today's shortened session only left room for 10 trades. The results are: 12 Total Trades 10 Winners 2 Losers Avg. Winner +1.05 / Avg. Loser -1.25 Gross 8 points - $400/contract Commission $57.60 Net $342.40/contract 12:03 L 924.75 +1 12:05 S 924.00 -1.25 L...

I'll take a shot at posting a journal of a very simple system that I'm trading. (trading e-mini SP's - should work on NQ's also) Here are my goals for a system: 1. Make a consistent profit. 2. Rules that are repeatable. I don't want to have to think too much while trading. That...

Aphie - Stop taking the bait. Specifically the stuff pertaining to your success or lack thereof when you start trading. That sort of argument will mess with your mind - even if you think it doesn't.

LOL. Didn't even notice that. Wierd.

Lol. I understand how tick charts are built - but not your comment about 250 ticks being in a bar thus no problem. When you see 10 bars built, how do you know that 2500 ticks just went through? If only 2000 ticks happened and you had 10 bars built - that would be too many bars.

How do you know you haven't had any problems? Do you have any other tick based charts to compare to?

Immediately bail. Even if you are up on the trade.

I realize it may not be that big of a deal. However - and this is my point - since most indicators that people use for signals use the close of the bar - isn't it important that you are getting what you think you are getting? For example, say you are using a 100 tick chart - you have...

Aphie - Why did you choose 250 ticks? Why not 200 or 265 or 248? Or 233 since since that is a fib number? What will happen if your data provider misses, say, 100 ticks in the first couple of hours - won't your charts be off by 100 ticks for the rest of the day? How will you know if you...