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I've had good results with tightening my stop to 2.5pts (one tick inside the opening range) as soon as a completed 3min bar has completely cleared the opening range (that is, the bar's entire range is outside the OR). I'm still in a mechanical testing process and papertrading, so I don't...

I agree with that, though I might quibble about whether it's a key to success or a byproduct of it... I'm not sure.

I understand what you're saying. Teresa would often comment about days like this, how non-trading folks would look at EOD and say "wow, you must have had a great day today!" when in fact it would be hard to explain to them that there just weren't any good opportunities to enter and it wasn't a...

If you backtest this stuff, you'll find that days when price takes off and never looks back are rare. Right, which is why I don't think it's a good idea to take an entry which relies on that happening to work. Trying to accommodate them affects the strategy, which must be applied every...

This morning appears to be another good example of when to pass on a 33min ORB entry. I took the long at 1064.00 (on paper only), but knew as I did it that I would be writing a rule to disallow it. The rule will be something like "no zag, no entry". In other words, there was only one...

Even in hindsight it just looks like crap to me.

At what point did you start to sense that today would be a mess? Any cautionary hints going into the open, any specific measures you take under such conditions? Regarding "ammunition" saved for a better day, do you have any specifically risk management related rules or limititations on...

Not exactly, I got short a little late after it came back into the OR. Ended up being stopped out at BE. Did you pass on the BO long at 1030.00, and if so why? Because of the expansion bar?

I think it's interesting to note that today's OR was entirely within yesterday's OR. This might not seem all that significant considering that yesterday's OR was quite wide (ended up almost being the day's total range). And it's just another way of describing sideways congestion...

It's not strange, it was all arranged for my benefit (educational, not financial). :cool: I was right there on top of that late afternoon ORB and the failure and reversal are specifically defined in my current rules, but I let myself think it was too late in the day and that it wasn't likely...

My personal preference is definitely for simple rules that are as mechanical, objective and unambiguous as possible. The less the seat of my pants is involved, the better. But I insist that those rules be based on very solid principles of price action, or at the very least on observed...

My real time paper trading this last week revealed mindless complications undermining my work, rather than mindful simplicity. This weekend I went back and re-read the original snosur4 posts that led to all this and I found much inspiration. I never really tested the simple, un-interpreted...

I know this is a huge complication, but I would suggest using a 33min range on days with 10am reports.

Did it say enough for you to get an early entry? I didn't take the BO so I entered on retracement at 1062.00. Are you still targeting retracements, or are you trying to be flexible depending on conditions?

And the pause here at yesterday's high is not unexpected. Failure would not be a surprise either.

I can understand that, but I can't relate to it. Somehow, patterns and indicators always confused the hell out of me and made me feel like I didn't really know what I was doing. But, to each his/her own. Only 6pts from target here, and I have a stop protecting 5pts of profit at the 2b...

Like to see you present a more mechanical system that is simpler, but doesn't have huge drawdowns or gut-wrenching stops, or overnight holds, or entries that only exist in backtesting, and that has a better risk/reward performance and doesn't encourage over-trading. I don't think it's...

I think it would make sense to move initial stop to BE after the TL clears the entry point enough to make that possible. This should have the same result as waiting for an actual breach to move the stop, but has the advantage of additional protection in case of disconnection (my ISP has been...

That makes sense. On Friday it seemed to come out about the same anyway (a full tick breach of the upper 5wma3min band would've stopped me out at 1084.50), assuming you would've drawn a TL perhaps on the 3min starting from the 10:51 bar at the end of the congestion. I think it might also...