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Developed world bonds trade pretty much the same direction so i myself am not getting any clues from that. Should global bonds reverse, it will be good for JPY longs, hence the chfjpy short. Personally, im not seeing too much appreciation in bonds within the next few years. Could just start to...

Market needs turnover. High turnover needs high levels of motivation to trade. That motivation lies in mispricings. So, the market is "wrong" most of the time. As the saying goes: The path of least resistance frequently leads through irrationality.

You're right.

The way the market tries to tell you that there's a ceiling at 150, so that you keep accumulating short positions and put stops above this level :) (chart attached) I wonder how many remember the Swiss central bank intervention intention in EURCHF back in 2015. When you're short you can't use...

on NZDCHF there is a "certain something" that should cause at least a short term reversal any time now ;)

No, the individual charts still matter, i just posted this chart to emphasize the magnitude of the move % wise when you combine the two instruments. CHFJPY is interesting actually. It has the same size swing now on weekly chart than previously which is also the highest swing found. Those...

Hey, Thought i'd give you a long term trade idea here. Since JPY has dropped like a rock while CHF has skyrocketed like mad, i would consider this as one of those "once in a lifetime" opportunities if you are a "set and forget" type a guy (investor) with no (or maybe really low) leverage. The...

oh, i've tried alright :) Maybe you can give me proof, though? PS. If you are referring to force majeure events then i agree completely that spot spreads go wild west and futures are much more contained. Other than that though...Can't really say that IB for example has horrific spreads on...

Doesn't eur futures trade at 1 point spread? Spot has eurusd spreads lower than 1 point usually. I'm pretty sure spot have, on average, lower spreads than futures. Maybe i'm wrong. Volume analysis is definitely questionable (to put it modestly) at retail spot brokers.

wait, are you saying that fx futures are somewhat different than spot fx (for retail traders, i mean)?

That's not your weakness. Your decision to trade forex instead of indices or stocks is your weakness. Let me explain: Forex has the highest "cost of trade". Its volatility vs spread vs slippage vs spread widening is the worst. Not to mention options spreads (some retail brokers offer options...

Here's a chart analysing the last time BOJ interviened. Exactly a year ago. What's odd is that exceptionally conveniently there was a subsequent drop in the dollar AND a drop in the US bond rates as well making it rational for the USDJPY to drop even without the intervention. Why? Because UJ...

This thread leads nowhere because there are ofc examples where price retraces back up as fast as it dropped. The bigger the drop the less likely it is and yes, for volatility pricing reasons. Thing is, you'll never really know when a retracement will be fast and when it will be slow so...

Isn't it facinating? Markets are sooo efficient in pricing that most traders never even ask the question of where does bids and asks and liquidity even come from. Everything is taken for granted. As if the almighty himself is offering those.

Become a liquidity provider and offer what you think is fair then. In that way, markets would not be rigged anymore since there's always you sitting on bids/asks offering liquidity at fair prices...

Let's not forget You were talking about 50% price moves. As i said before, channels in short timeframes/ low point ranges are a different story because the % change is very small and thus has almost non existing impact due other factors/traders/strategies also in play at the same time. Which is...

You mean 48,5 pips. Yeah, backing off from bids/asks is what is causing this. Not heavy selling.

There is no fat finger "accidents" in fx trading. MM's/liq providers backing off from bids is what is causing this. One can only speculate why this happens but pretty sure it has everything to do with the fact that market is massively short, so MM's are long, so they cause volatility to get out...

IT IS mathematically challenged to do so because you have long gamma guys delta hedging (gamma scalping) constantly when price changes. So, when prices rise they SELL. That's an actual trade, an actual supply. Their hedging is much more tighter when the price start to rise from 5 compared to...