Search results

This is really outdated logic about market relationships. Usd can easily rise during risk on, so could jpy and chf and vise versa. It"s all about context.

hmm, two threads about gbp value today...and with same sentiment...

yield differencials work better on cross pairs. USD has so many inputs that overshadow yield diffs importance. But yeah, in the end, yield diffs and currency values always converge, even if it takes 5 years.

I think it's quite the opposite. Everything is about yield atm and thus about the JPY because JPY is a proxy for yield. US10y trading above 5% is a milestone and JPY trading near decade highs against several pairs which is something not seen in a long time. This attracts a lot of attention since...

Intervention by BOJ (if it indeed happens) just causes temporary spikes that are bought into immediately (or bids/asks reprice immediately back up). Here's an USDJPY chart how intervention "worked" the last time for BOJ. 3 interventions, every time price traded back. Then, BOJ changes policy...

hmm, trading in Rand causing things in JPY? I dunno...

That move 150 increased options prices like mad. Bets on volatility have increased making actual possible volatility less likely now :) Slowly but surely there's growing attractiveness in long SP500 / long yen structure. SP just might close that 4050-4000 gap first.

There are your stops. From those who thought 150 was protected.

What are u talking about? It's nothing like a S/R level strategy, in fact, i didn't even describe a specific strategy in that post. I just suggested to change the JPY for a high yielder when trading short USD because of overnight funding reasons. It's working perfectly right now. And if JPY...

Yield is yield, they move the same most of the time. Chart attached. If they don't then you trade the yield curve not the idea i proposed. USD isn't listening any one thing. It is listening everything. And you never know which asset class will be leading and which one will be lagging. I could...

95%+ of my trades are purely algorithmic, so your "mentality change" doesn't really apply on me. The threads i create here are mostly based on long term "mispricings" so there is TIME to digest and discuss. That mentality you are referring to is probably only about "averaging down every losing...

I might lose a lot of value when waiting for a trendline break which is way below. Makes sense to just jump on the train right now and use lower size with the option to average down higher. I don't mind yields to keep rising from here (at already highs) because it'll start to have fearful...

I don't really have a technical analysist mindset when i'm doing trades like these. Only % change (the "discount") and time matter here. If anything, i'd aggressively sell into any trend following signal, say a touch (not break) of upward sloping trendline. Works okay.

Well excuse me and my paint skills, lol

Hey, I thought i'd give another long term trade idea: Short treasury note and short the USD (against eur/gbp/aud for example). The idea is that yield rise and dollar strength don't go together sustainably. But in short term, fundamental mispricings (if you believe in such a thing) happen all...

Hello ChatGPT.

Successful "intuition" traders actually have a pretty straightforward strategy that can be modelled and there isn't anything magical about it. Say orderflow traders. Bad intuition traders can be classified as trades based on current emotions and current PnL's. Success depends on luck, usually...

FX is the hardest because 1) it has a "volatility problem". Since it moves slow, you are bound to use high leverage (unless your account is like 500k+) 2) Even with overall low volatility, you experience higher spikes, spread widening and slippage compared to say SP500 index. That's probably...

Thanks for that and i loved it. But there are several things i also disagree with. The main thing is that the future can not be predicted the way it used to be. We kinda live in a quantum state where two potential stories (which are completely opposite of each other) are present at the same time...

If you think GBPJPY will trend down and USDJPY might stay flat then you simply believe that GBP will weaken. In that case you're better off trading short GBP against other pairs not JPY to avoid high daily financing costs.